Patrick Mahomes Week 10 fantasy outlook
‹ Kansas City ChiefsNext game
Week 10 @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM
QB12QB12QB12 this weekQB15 on the season
Last game
16.5 pts16.5 pts16.5 pts · 23 of 31 passing, 242 yds, 2 TDs, 8 rush yds
Updated Tuesday, Nov 10, 6:27 AM ET
Week 10 outlook
@ ATL ·No injury report yet
Patrick Mahomes is a low-end QB1 this week. In the projection he gets 35 pass attempts, 246 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 1 interception and 10 rushing yards. The points for Mahomes look better than the usage. No two recent games look alike: 6, 25 and 16 points. He's an easy start this week.
Week 10 in numbers
Fantasy points
Projected
15.715.715.7
pts · QB12QB12QB12 this week
Season average
17.817.817.8
pts per game · 8 games
Projected stats
Passing yards
245.8
Passing TDs
1.6
Rushing yards
9.8
Matchup · defense
Show likely range
Floor · Ceiling
There is a 50% chance he scores between these two numbers.
About a 1-in-4 chance of a big game (35% or more above the projection); about a 1-in-9 chance of a dud (half of it or less).
Ranks compare players at the position this week. Projections assume the player is active.
Fantasy points
142.0142.0142.0
QB14 · 8 games
Per game
17.817.817.8
QB15QB15QB15
Passing TDs
14
QB12 of 69
Passing yards
2037
QB11 of 69
Rushing yards
85
QB20 of 69
Interceptions
4
—
2026 regular season through Week 9. Ranks among QBs who have played; per-game ranks need 2+ games.
Season so far
Overall 2026 regular season
Game by game
Last seasons Game QB1/QB2 Season avg Next game
QB1/QB2 lines: the per-game level of the 12th, 24th QB this season (12-team league). Last seasons = that season's per-game average.
Season summary
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 2037 yards and 14 touchdowns in 8 games, averaging 18 fantasy points per game (QB15). For Week 10 at the Atlanta Falcons, Mahomes projects for 16 PPR points (QB12).
| 2026 so far | Mahomes | Avg starter QBAvg QB | DifferenceDiff |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPR points / game | 17.8 | 20.4 | −13% |
| Pass yards / game | 255 | 260 | −2% |
| Pass TD / game | 1.8 | 1.9 | −10% |
| Rush yards / game | 11 | 17 | −36% |
| Snap share | 99% | 98% | +2% |
Average starter = the top 12 QBs by PPR points per game (2+ games). Difference: green = 10%+ better, red = 10%+ worse. Updated with every data refresh.
Schedule strength
Next 3 games
Easy · 8th
18.0 PPR allowed to QBs / game · ATL, ARI, BUF
Rest of season
Easy · 5th
17.3 PPR allowed to QBs / game · 9 games
Fantasy playoffs
Middle · 18th
16.2 PPR allowed to QBs / game · Weeks 15–17
| Week | Opponent | PPR allowed to QBs / game | Defense rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| W10 | @ ATL | 17.1 | Middle · 18th |
| W11 | vs ARI | 20.9 | Easy · 2nd |
| W12 | @ BUF | 16.1 | Tough · 22nd |
| W13 | @ LA | 15.8 | Tough · 23rd |
| W14 | @ CIN | 17.3 | Middle · 17th |
| W15 | vs NE | 17.4 | Middle · 16th |
| W16 | vs SF | 14.9 | Tough · 24th |
| W17 | @ LAC | 16.2 | Middle · 21st |
| W18 | vs LV | 20.4 | Easy · 3rd |
Rank of 32 by PPR points allowed to QBs this season.
Role profile
Rank among QBs with 2+ games this season (1st = best at the position; for interceptions and sacks, 1st = fewest); the bar shows where that sits in the field. Efficiency needs at least 10 targets or carries (quarterbacks: 30 pass attempts).
Role trend
Snap share
Game log · 2026
Swipe sideways for more columns
| Wk | Opp | Result | Pts | Proj | Cmp | Att | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush att | Rush yds | Rush TD | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | vs DEN | W 31–10 | 21.721.721.7 | ——— | 15 | 27 | 184 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 100% |
| W2 | vs IND | W 33–30 | 29.029.029.0 | ——— | 32 | 47 | 382 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 100% |
| W3 | @ MIA | W 24–10 | 15.915.915.9 | ——— | 20 | 24 | 246 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% |
| W4 | @ LV | W 30–27 | 17.017.017.0 | 16.016.016.0 | 15 | 30 | 225 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| W6 | vs LAC | W 22–6 | 10.510.510.5 | 15.115.115.1 | 23 | 30 | 272 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 100% |
| W7 | @ SEA | L 3–20 | 6.06.06.0 | 16.014.514.5 | 19 | 33 | 165 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 100% |
| W8 | @ DEN | L 24–28 | 25.425.425.4 | 13.414.314.3 | 30 | 41 | 321 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 100% |
| W9 | vs NYJ | W 35–12 | 16.516.516.5 | 15.514.614.6 | 23 | 31 | 242 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 94% |
Season by season
Swipe sideways for more columns
| Season | Team | G | Pts | Pts / g | Cmp | Att | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush att | Rush yds | Rush TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | KC | 1 | 10.410.410.4QB51 | 10.410.410.4 | 22 | 35 | 284 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| 2018 | KC | 16 | 417.1417.1417.1QB1 | 26.126.126.1QB1 | 383 | 580 | 5097 | 50 | 12 | 20 | 272 | 2 |
| 2019 | KC | 14 | 287.0287.0287.0QB7 | 20.520.520.5QB6 | 319 | 484 | 4031 | 26 | 5 | 8 | 218 | 2 |
| 2020 | KC | 15 | 374.4374.4374.4QB4 | 25.025.025.0QB2 | 390 | 588 | 4740 | 38 | 6 | 8 | 308 | 2 |
| 2021 | KC | 17 | 361.7361.7361.7QB4 | 21.321.321.3QB5 | 436 | 658 | 4839 | 37 | 13 | 5 | 381 | 2 |
| 2022 | KC | 17 | 417.4416.9416.4QB1 | 24.624.524.5QB3 | 435 | 648 | 5250 | 41 | 12 | 6 | 358 | 4 |
| 2023 | KC | 16 | 280.2280.2280.2QB8 | 17.517.517.5QB14 | 401 | 597 | 4183 | 27 | 14 | 4 | 389 | 0 |
| 2024 | KC | 16 | 283.0282.5282.0QB12 | 17.717.717.6QB11 | 392 | 581 | 3928 | 26 | 11 | 1 | 307 | 2 |
| 2025 | KC | 14 | 285.7285.2284.7QB11 | 20.420.420.3QB4 | 315 | 502 | 3587 | 22 | 11 | 4 | 422 | 5 |
| 2026 | KC | 8 | 142.0142.0142.0QB14 | 17.817.817.8QB15 | 177 | 263 | 2037 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 85 | 1 |
Regular season. The tag under each number is his rank at the position that season (PPR; per game: 4+ games). Green = top 12, blue = 13–24.
How these numbers are made
- Player ID
- 00-0033873
- Projection made
- Data snapshot
- Season stats
- nflverse play-by-play and player stats (CC-BY 4.0)
- Fantasy scoring
- Standard rules: PPR, half PPR (0.5 per catch), standard. Scored points use the official stats, including 2-point conversions and return touchdowns. Projections leave those two out: they are rare and not modeled.
More QB rankings · Usage report