Week 9

Week 10 risers, fallers and breakout candidates (after Week 9)

The biggest changes in fantasy points last week: the breakout candidates outside the usual starters, and the fallers.

Risers, fallers and breakout candidates · Week 9

Risers and breakout candidates: what changed in Week 9, and is it real?

The biggest moves against each player's own earlier average. Each card says what changed and whether it's likely to last.

Risers and breakout candidates · Running backs

Justice Hill RB · BAL — From 8 points in Week 8 to 18 in Week 9: that's the jump for Justice Hill. Hill has moved up in this offense. He took 22% of the team's carries over the last two games, against 10% before. It wasn't an injury, so it isn't going away because of one coming back. Our projection4 carries · 23 rushing yards · 2 receptions · 13 receiving yards · 0.2 touchdowns7 PPR pointsLast week: scored 18.216.715.2, projected 5.24.83.8.

Risers and breakout candidates · Wide receivers

Omar Cooper Jr. WR · NYJ — Omar Cooper Jr. went from 0 points in Week 8 to 14 in Week 9. Cooper is next in line if Garrett Wilson misses the game. Check back after the injury report: if Garrett Wilson is out, Cooper is the play. If Garrett Wilson is active, this pick is gone and Cooper goes back to the bench. Our projection5 targets · 4 receptions · 52 receiving yards · 0.3 touchdowns11 PPR pointsLast week: scored 13.89.85.8, projected 10.68.46.6.

KC Concepcion WR · CLE — KC Concepcion jumped from 7 points in Week 8 to 19 in Week 9. This is a quarterback story: Sanders is throwing to Concepcion. Snap share: 70% before, 88% over the last two games. Close to 32% of the points Concepcion has scored lately were touchdowns. As long as Sanders plays, this stands. He's also a start because Sanders is the quarterback. Our projection6 targets · 4 receptions · 49 receiving yards · 0.3 touchdowns10 PPR pointsLast week: scored 18.816.814.8, projected 9.37.85.8.

Denzel Boston WR · CLE — Denzel Boston's Week 9: 16 points, up from 10 in Week 8. Sanders is the quarterback for now, which is what Boston needs. He had 20% of the team's targets before and 26% over the last two games. Sanders staying healthy is the condition. Our projection7 targets · 3 receptions · 51 receiving yards · 0.3 touchdowns10 PPR pointsLast week: scored 15.812.89.8, projected 9.58.87.2.

Fallers · Quarterbacks

Jared Goff QB · DET — Jared Goff slipped to 5 points in Week 9 after averaging about 20 points a game. His workload stayed flat; the plays did not go his way. Around 42% of the points Goff has put up lately were touchdowns. He's slipping: 18, 9 and 5 points. One quiet week isn't a reason to move him. Our projection32 pass attempts · 259 passing yards · 1.8 passing touchdowns · 0.6 interceptions · 3 rushing yards17 PPR pointsLast week: scored 5.35.35.3, projected 18.216.216.2.

Josh Allen QB · BUF — Week 9 was rough for Josh Allen: 13 points, well below his usual 27 points. It was a quiet week, with his share of the work where it was. Touchdowns account for about 43% of the recent points for Allen. Don't sell him on this week alone. Our projection30 pass attempts · 261 passing yards · 1.7 passing touchdowns · 0.7 interceptions · 31 rushing yards22 PPR pointsLast week: scored 12.912.912.9, projected 21.620.120.1.

Fallers · Running backs

Josh Jacobs RB · GB — Josh Jacobs scored only 0 points in Week 9, against about 22 points a game before. He played only 15% of the snaps, against 52% before, so the line says little about his role. His part of the carries moved from 58% to 47% over the last two games. We'd wait a week to judge this. He's also a bust risk because Minnesota is a tough matchup. Our projection11 carries · 43 rushing yards · 2 receptions · 18 receiving yards · 0.6 touchdowns12 PPR pointsLast week: scored 0.50.50.5, projected 17.315.213.4.

D'Andre Swift RB · CHI — Week 9 gave D'Andre Swift only 3 points; he had been averaging about 19 points. He had the same work as before, and the plays did not hit. Roughly 48% of what Swift has scored recently came on touchdowns. Good games and bad games are mixed in: 19, 28 and 3 points. We'd hold him through this. Our projectionBye this weekLast week: scored 3.13.13.1, projected 18.114.112.8.

Fallers · Wide receivers

Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA — Jaxon Smith-Njigba slid from 28 points a game down to 12 in Week 9. Same snaps, same touches, smaller plays: that is the week. Take the touchdowns away and about 30% of the recent points for Smith-Njigba disappear. Since Lock took over in Week 1, he's fading: 31, 24 and 12 points in his last three. Stay patient and keep him. He's also a buy-low target because Lock is the quarterback. Our projection9 targets · 7 receptions · 96 receiving yards · 0.6 touchdowns20 PPR pointsLast week: scored 12.18.65.1, projected 21.916.713.3.

Zay Flowers WR · BAL — Managers got 5 points from Zay Flowers in Week 9, down from about 17 points a game. His share of the work did not move, so don't panic yet. Keep him on your roster and in your plans. Our projection6 targets · 4 receptions · 58 receiving yards · 0.3 touchdowns11 PPR pointsLast week: scored 5.33.82.3, projected 12.410.18.0.

Fallers · Tight ends

Tucker Kraft TE · GB — Tucker Kraft dropped from about 11 points a game to 2 in Week 9. Nothing changed in his workload: the points are what dipped. He has been up and down, at 15, 17 and 2 points. Nothing here says to move him. He's also a bust risk because Minnesota is a tough matchup; that page looks at his range of outcomes this week, this one at whether last week's score repeats, so both can be true. Our projection5 targets · 4 receptions · 47 receiving yards · 0.3 touchdowns10 PPR pointsLast week: scored 1.91.40.9, projected 11.18.96.9.

Don't chase last week's score

Big jumps last week with no bigger role behind them, or no real lineup spot this week.

Kayshon Boutte scored 28 points on 14% of Houston's targets; we project 6 this week.
Darren Waller scored 23 points on 27% of Carolina's targets; we project 9 this week.
Van Jefferson scored 17 points on 21% of Washington's targets; we project 6 this week.
Michael Penix Jr. scored 13 points; we project 13 this week.
Tank Dell scored 20 points on 24% of Houston's targets; we project 10 this week.
Kaleb Johnson scored 13 points on 45% of Green Bay's carries; we project 5 this week.

Full lists

Fantasy pointsOpportunities

▲ Risers · fantasy points

#	Player	Week 9	Earlier avgBefore	Change
1	Kayshon BoutteWR · HOU	28.5	4.9	+23.6
2	Shedeur SandersQB · CLE	22.7	0.1	+22.6
3	Jordan LoveQB · GB	36.2	18.6	+17.6
4	C.J. StroudQB · HOU	35.4	18.4	+17.0
5	Van JeffersonWR · WAS	16.8	0.0	+16.8
6	Matthew GoldenWR · GB	32.4	16.4	+16.0
7	Darren WallerTE · CAR	23.0	7.7	+15.3
8	Jordan WatkinsWR · SF	18.6	4.0	+14.6
9	Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC	36.3	22.9	+13.4
10	Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN	31.5	18.3	+13.2
11	Justice HillRB · BAL	18.2	5.4	+12.8
12	CeeDee LambWR · DAL	33.5	21.0	+12.5
13	Bucky IrvingRB · TB	28.5	16.3	+12.2
14	Puka NacuaWR · LA	35.0	23.1	+11.9
15	Christian WatsonWR · GB	30.1	18.4	+11.8
16	Ashton DulinWR · IND	12.8	1.6	+11.2
17	Efton Chism IIIWR · NE	15.9	5.0	+10.9
18	Kaleb JohnsonRB · GB	12.8	2.1	+10.7
19	KC ConcepcionWR · CLE	18.8	8.7	+10.1

▼ Fallers · fantasy points

#	Player	Week 9	Earlier avgBefore	Change
1	Josh JacobsRB · GB	0.5	21.6	−21.1
2	D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI	3.1	18.8	−15.7
3	Carson WentzQB · MIN	-2.8	12.8	−15.5
4	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA	12.1	27.5	−15.4
5	Jared GoffQB · DET	5.3	20.3	−15.0
6	Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET	13.4	28.0	−14.6
7	Josh AllenQB · BUF	12.9	26.8	−14.0
8	Zay FlowersWR · BAL	5.3	17.5	−12.2
9	Adonai MitchellWR · NYJ	0.0	12.1	−12.1
10	Derrick HenryRB · BAL	5.6	17.1	−11.5
11	Malik WillisQB · MIA	3.8	14.5	−10.6
12	Kyren WilliamsRB · LA	9.1	18.8	−9.7
13	Ashton JeantyRB · LV	7.0	16.5	−9.5
14	Jameson WilliamsWR · DET	5.0	14.4	−9.4
15	Tucker KraftTE · GB	1.9	11.1	−9.2
16	Jonathan TaylorRB · IND	9.4	18.0	−8.6
17	Devaughn VeleWR · NO	3.7	12.3	−8.6
18	Aaron JonesRB · MIN	3.1	11.4	−8.3

▲ Risers · fantasy points

#	Player	Week 9	Earlier avgBefore	Change
1	Kayshon BoutteWR · HOU	26.5	3.8	+22.7
2	Shedeur SandersQB · CLE	22.7	0.1	+22.6
3	Jordan LoveQB · GB	36.2	18.6	+17.6
4	C.J. StroudQB · HOU	35.4	18.4	+17.0
5	Van JeffersonWR · WAS	14.3	0.0	+14.3
6	Matthew GoldenWR · GB	27.4	13.8	+13.6
7	Jordan WatkinsWR · SF	16.6	3.4	+13.2
8	Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC	34.3	21.3	+13.0
9	Justice HillRB · BAL	16.7	4.3	+12.4
10	Darren WallerTE · CAR	19.0	6.6	+12.4
11	Bucky IrvingRB · TB	26.5	15.2	+11.3
12	Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN	26.5	15.2	+11.3
13	CeeDee LambWR · DAL	28.5	17.3	+11.2
14	Ashton DulinWR · IND	12.3	1.2	+11.1
15	Christian WatsonWR · GB	26.6	15.7	+10.9
16	Kaleb JohnsonRB · GB	12.8	2.0	+10.8
17	KC ConcepcionWR · CLE	16.8	6.6	+10.2

▼ Fallers · fantasy points

#	Player	Week 9	Earlier avgBefore	Change
1	Josh JacobsRB · GB	0.5	18.9	−18.4
2	Carson WentzQB · MIN	-2.8	12.8	−15.5
3	Jared GoffQB · DET	5.3	20.3	−15.0
4	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA	8.6	23.5	−14.9
5	D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI	3.1	17.3	−14.2
6	Josh AllenQB · BUF	12.9	26.8	−13.9
7	Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET	13.4	25.5	−12.1
8	Zay FlowersWR · BAL	3.8	14.6	−10.8
9	Derrick HenryRB · BAL	5.6	16.3	−10.8
10	Malik WillisQB · MIA	3.8	14.5	−10.6
11	Adonai MitchellWR · NYJ	0.0	10.1	−10.1
12	Jonathan TaylorRB · IND	6.9	16.7	−9.8
13	Ashton JeantyRB · LV	4.5	14.2	−9.7
14	Kyren WilliamsRB · LA	7.6	16.7	−9.1

▲ Risers · fantasy points

#	Player	Week 9	Earlier avgBefore	Change
1	Shedeur SandersQB · CLE	22.7	0.1	+22.6
2	Kayshon BoutteWR · HOU	24.5	2.8	+21.7
3	Jordan LoveQB · GB	36.2	18.6	+17.6
4	C.J. StroudQB · HOU	35.4	18.4	+17.0
5	Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC	32.3	19.7	+12.6
6	Justice HillRB · BAL	15.2	3.2	+12.0
7	Jordan WatkinsWR · SF	14.6	2.8	+11.8
8	Matthew GoldenWR · GB	22.4	11.1	+11.3
9	Kaleb JohnsonRB · GB	12.8	1.9	+10.9
10	Bucky IrvingRB · TB	24.5	14.1	+10.4
11	KC ConcepcionWR · CLE	14.8	4.6	+10.2
12	Christian WatsonWR · GB	23.1	13.1	+10.0

▼ Fallers · fantasy points

#	Player	Week 9	Earlier avgBefore	Change
1	Josh JacobsRB · GB	0.5	16.1	−15.6
2	Carson WentzQB · MIN	-2.8	12.8	−15.5
3	Jared GoffQB · DET	5.3	20.3	−15.0
4	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA	5.1	19.5	−14.4
5	Josh AllenQB · BUF	12.9	26.7	−13.8
6	D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI	3.1	15.8	−12.7
7	Jonathan TaylorRB · IND	4.4	15.4	−11.0
8	Malik WillisQB · MIA	3.8	14.5	−10.6
9	Derrick HenryRB · BAL	5.6	15.6	−10.0
10	Ashton JeantyRB · LV	2.0	11.9	−9.9
11	Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET	13.4	23.1	−9.7
12	Zay FlowersWR · BAL	2.3	11.7	−9.4
13	Kyren WilliamsRB · LA	6.1	14.6	−8.5
14	Adonai MitchellWR · NYJ	0.0	8.1	−8.1

▲ Risers · opportunities

#	Player	Week 9	Earlier avgBefore	Change
1	Devin SingletaryRB · NYG	24.0	6.8	+17.2
2	Jonah ColemanRB · DEN	21.0	10.0	+11.0
3	James CookRB · BUF	32.0	22.1	+9.9
4	Woody MarksRB · HOU	22.0	13.4	+8.6
5	Tyler AllgeierRB · ARI	20.0	11.8	+8.2
6	Puka NacuaWR · LA	21.0	13.2	+7.8
7	Kaleb JohnsonRB · GB	14.0	6.2	+7.8
8	Omar Cooper Jr.WR · NYJ	11.0	3.2	+7.8
9	Tyler GoodsonRB · DAL	13.0	5.8	+7.2
10	Darren WallerTE · CAR	10.0	3.6	+6.4
11	Justice HillRB · BAL	12.0	6.1	+5.9
12	Austin EkelerRB · WAS	11.0	5.2	+5.8
13	Emari DemercadoRB · HOU	8.0	2.5	+5.5
14	Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL	25.0	19.8	+5.2
15	Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · JAX	12.0	6.9	+5.1
16	Darius CooperWR · PHI	8.0	3.0	+5.0
17	Dylan SampsonRB · CLE	14.0	9.0	+5.0
18	Samaje PerineRB · CIN	11.0	6.6	+4.4
19	Courtland SuttonWR · DEN	9.0	4.6	+4.4
20	DeMario DouglasWR · NE	9.0	4.6	+4.4
21	CeeDee LambWR · DAL	16.0	11.8	+4.2
22	Cade OttonTE · TB	8.0	3.8	+4.2
23	Justin JeffersonWR · MIN	11.0	6.8	+4.2
24	Kimani VidalRB · LAC	10.0	6.1	+3.9
25	Ameer AbdullahRB · JAX	7.0	3.2	+3.8

▼ Fallers · opportunities

#	Player	Week 9	Earlier avgBefore	Change
1	Josh JacobsRB · GB	4.0	22.5	−18.5
2	Aaron JonesRB · MIN	6.0	18.7	−12.7
3	D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI	13.0	21.4	−8.4
4	J.K. DobbinsRB · DEN	5.0	12.9	−7.9
5	Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET	21.0	28.7	−7.7
6	Chase BrownRB · CIN	12.0	19.4	−7.4
7	Braelon AllenRB · NYJ	10.0	16.8	−6.8
8	Ashton JeantyRB · LV	13.0	19.5	−6.5
9	George HolaniRB · SEA	0.0	6.5	−6.5
10	Bhayshul TutenRB · JAX	12.0	18.0	−6.0
11	Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN	1.0	6.6	−5.6
12	Rhamondre StevensonRB · NE	10.0	15.4	−5.4
13	Elijah MitchellRB · PHI	7.0	12.0	−5.0
14	Derrick HenryRB · BAL	17.0	21.5	−4.5
15	Jonathan TaylorRB · IND	18.0	22.4	−4.4
16	Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLE	2.0	6.4	−4.4
17	Jordan MasonRB · MIN	9.0	13.3	−4.3
18	Malik WashingtonWR · MIA	4.0	7.6	−3.6
19	Michael WilsonWR · ARI	7.0	10.5	−3.5
20	Ja'Kobi LaneWR · BAL	0.0	3.5	−3.5
21	Nico CollinsWR · HOU	4.0	7.4	−3.4
22	Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR	6.0	9.3	−3.3
23	Jameson WilliamsWR · DET	3.0	6.3	−3.3
24	Juwan JohnsonTE · NO	2.0	5.3	−3.3
25	Drake LondonWR · ATL	5.0	8.0	−3.0

How to use this page

Risers, fallers and breakout candidates: the players whose fantasy points moved most last week. Each Week 10 card says what changed (role, an injury, a teammate, or a few big plays) and whether it's likely to last. Use it on Monday and Tuesday to find the breakouts without overreacting to one game.

Scored points use the official stats, including 2-point conversions and return touchdowns. Projections leave those two out: they are rare and not modeled.