Track record: how our projections did

Every projection is saved before kickoff and never edited. Each week we compare all of them with what happened, and with the simplest alternative: the player's season average.

Week by week: are we getting better?

Season to date, Weeks 4-9: 551 players projected for 10+ PPR points with a season average to compare

Season to date our projections were 6.8% closer than simply using each player's season average (6.4 against 6.9 PPR points off on a typical player).

Week	Players	Our miss (PPR pts)	Average guess (PPR pts)	Closer
Week 4 (model run before kickoff)	85	6.6	7.5	11.8%
Week 5 (model run before kickoff)	96	7.4	8.1	8.9%
Week 6 (model run before kickoff)	91	5.6	6.1	9.0%
Week 7	96	6.1	6.4	4.1%
Week 8	89	6.8	7.2	6.4%
Week 9	94	6.1	6.0	-0.7%
Season to date (Weeks 4-9)	551	6.4	6.9	6.8%
Week 7 on (graded on the numbers readers saw)	279	6.3	6.5	3.4%

Weeks 4-6 show the model run before kickoff, which can differ a little from the numbers readers saw (those were not saved before Week 7). From Week 7 every week is graded on the projections readers saw.

Missed points by position

Average miss in PPR points per player. Top bar: our projection. Bottom bar: simply using the player's season average.

Scorecard · Week 9

Week 9: where we were closest, and where we missed

Our closest calls at each position among the 95 players we projected for 10+ PPR points, and the biggest misses, so you can judge for yourself.

Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones QB · IND — Daniel Jones: projected 11 points, scored 10.3.

Bo Nix QB · DEN — Bo Nix: projected 15 points, scored 15.7.

Michael Penix Jr. QB · ATL — Michael Penix Jr.: projected 13 points, scored 13.5.

Also notable: Jordan Love (biggest miss: 17.8 projected, 36.2 scored) and C.J. Stroud (biggest miss: 17.6 projected, 35.4 scored).

Running backs

Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE — Rhamondre Stevenson: projected 15 points, scored 14.8.

Breece Hall RB · NYJ — Breece Hall: projected 12 points, scored 11.7.

Blake Corum RB · LA — Blake Corum: projected 11 points, scored 11.8.

Also notable: Kenneth Walker III (biggest miss: 17.6 projected, 36.3 scored) and Josh Jacobs (biggest miss: 17.3 projected, 0.5 scored).

Wide receivers

Michael Wilson WR · ARI — Michael Wilson: projected 12 points, scored 12.0.

Chris Olave WR · NO — Chris Olave: projected 16 points, scored 16.8.

Parker Washington WR · JAX — Parker Washington: projected 13 points, scored 14.1.

Also notable: Matthew Golden (biggest miss: 13.3 projected, 32.4 scored) and CeeDee Lamb (biggest miss: 15.9 projected, 33.5 scored).

Tight ends

Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE — Harold Fannin Jr.: projected 10 points, scored 12.2.

Trey McBride TE · ARI — Trey McBride: projected 15 points, scored 12.4.

Colston Loveland TE · CHI — Colston Loveland: projected 12 points, scored 9.4.

Also notable: Tucker Kraft (biggest miss: 11.1 projected, 1.9 scored) and Brenton Strange (biggest miss: 11.5 projected, 4.2 scored).

Week 9

363 players scored · 95 projected for 10+ PPR

Week 9 rankings vs results, every player →

For all 95 players we projected for 10+ PPR points, our projection missed by 6.0 points on a typical player. On the 94 of them with a season average to compare, simply using that average would have missed by 6.0 and ours by 6.1: our projections were 1% further off.

Graded on the projections readers saw.

Closer than the season average

-1%

6.1 vs 6.0 points, on the 94 players with a season average to compare

Within 7 points

71 of 95

within 5: 45 of 95

Did the ranking work?

Yes

Players we ranked higher scored 6.7 more points on average (17.0 vs 10.3).

Usage: targets

1.6

average miss in targets per player

Average miss by position

QB5.7 points · 25 players

RB6.4 points · 27 players

TE5.1 points · 14 players

WR6.4 points · 29 players

Scored more than projected

Matthew Golden projected 13.3, scored 32.4
Kenneth Walker III projected 17.6, scored 36.3
Jordan Love projected 17.8, scored 36.2
C.J. Stroud projected 17.6, scored 35.4
CeeDee Lamb projected 15.9, scored 33.5

Scored less than projected

Josh Jacobs projected 17.3, scored 0.5
D'Andre Swift projected 18.1, scored 3.1
Jared Goff projected 18.2, scored 5.3
Malik Willis projected 14.4, scored 3.8
Jahmyr Gibbs projected 23.5, scored 13.4

Every player, Week 9 (363)

#	Player	Projected PPRProj	Scored PPRScored	DifferenceDiff
1	Joe BurrowQB · CIN	24.2	29.5	+5.3
2	Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET	23.5	13.4	−10.1
3	Puka NacuaWR · LA	22.4	35.0	+12.6
4	Drake MayeQB · NE	22.0	18.3	−3.7
5	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA	21.9	12.1	−9.8
6	Josh AllenQB · BUF	21.6	12.9	−8.7
7	Christian McCaffreyRB · SF	21.6	22.7	+1.1
8	Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL	21.2	26.7	+5.5
9	Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN	19.3	31.5	+12.2
10	Jayden DanielsQB · WAS	19.2	14.5	−4.7
11	Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX	19.1	13.6	−5.5
12	Brock PurdyQB · SF	18.7	25.3	+6.6
13	James CookRB · BUF	18.4	16.7	−1.7
14	Jared GoffQB · DET	18.2	5.3	−12.9
15	Tee HigginsWR · CIN	18.2	20.2	+2.0
16	D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI	18.1	3.1	−15.0
17	Jordan LoveQB · GB	17.8	36.2	+18.4
18	C.J. StroudQB · HOU	17.6	35.4	+17.8
19	Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC	17.6	36.3	+18.7
20	Josh JacobsRB · GB	17.3	0.5	−16.8
21	Kyren WilliamsRB · LA	17.2	9.1	−8.1
22	Chuba HubbardRB · CAR	17.1	13.6	−3.5
23	Matthew StaffordQB · LA	17.0	11.2	−5.8
24	Dak PrescottQB · DAL	16.9	19.5	+2.6
25	Malik NabersWR · NYG	16.9	9.3	−7.6
26	Kirk CousinsQB · LV	16.6	12.6	−4.0
27	Chase BrownRB · CIN	16.5	10.5	−6.0
28	George KittleTE · SF	16.3	9.8	−6.5
29	Bucky IrvingRB · TB	16.3	28.5	+12.2
30	Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL	16.0	22.4	+6.4
31	CeeDee LambWR · DAL	15.9	33.5	+17.6
32	Chris OlaveWR · NO	15.9	16.8	+0.9
33	Jonathan TaylorRB · IND	15.7	9.4	−6.3
34	Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI	15.7	12.8	−2.9
35	Patrick MahomesQB · KC	15.5	16.5	+1.0
36	Brock BowersTE · LV	15.4	22.3	+6.9
37	Rashee RiceWR · KC	15.1	9.9	−5.2
38	Bo NixQB · DEN	15.0	15.7	+0.7
39	Trey McBrideTE · ARI	14.9	12.4	−2.5
40	Bhayshul TutenRB · JAX	14.8	8.9	−5.9
41	Rhamondre StevensonRB · NE	14.8	14.8	±0.0
42	Jameson WilliamsWR · DET	14.8	5.0	−9.8
43	Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET	14.5	16.6	+2.1
44	Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR	14.4	15.6	+1.2
45	Malik WillisQB · MIA	14.4	3.8	−10.6
46	Drake LondonWR · ATL	14.2	11.8	−2.4
47	Tyler ShoughQB · NO	14.2	19.7	+5.5
48	Geno SmithQB · NYJ	13.9	7.4	−6.5
49	Nico CollinsWR · HOU	13.6	15.5	+1.9
50	Bryce YoungQB · CAR	13.5	20.3	+6.8
51	Justin JeffersonWR · MIN	13.5	8.8	−4.7
52	Matthew GoldenWR · GB	13.3	32.4	+19.1
53	Parker WashingtonWR · JAX	13.2	14.1	+0.9
54	Christian WatsonWR · GB	13.2	30.1	+16.9
55	Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL	12.8	13.5	+0.7
56	Tyler WarrenTE · IND	12.8	8.4	−4.4
57	Woody MarksRB · HOU	12.6	8.4	−4.2
58	Luther Burden IIIWR · CHI	12.5	20.7	+8.2
59	Zay FlowersWR · BAL	12.4	5.3	−7.1
60	Colston LovelandTE · CHI	12.4	9.4	−3.0
61	Breece HallRB · NYJ	12.4	11.7	−0.7
62	Stefon DiggsWR · WAS	12.3	8.1	−4.2
63	Derrick HenryRB · BAL	12.2	5.6	−6.6
64	Isaiah LikelyTE · NYG	12.2	16.3	+4.1
65	Ollie Gordon IIRB · MIA	12.2	7.4	−4.8
66	Rachaad WhiteRB · WAS	12.1	6.9	−5.2
67	Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLE	12.0	5.5	−6.5
68	Jonah ColemanRB · DEN	12.0	18.8	+6.8
69	Sam LaPortaTE · DET	12.0	7.2	−4.8
70	Justin HerbertQB · LAC	11.8	10.4	−1.4
71	J.J. McCarthyQB · NYG	11.8	7.3	−4.5
72	Rome OdunzeWR · CHI	11.7	16.0	+4.3
73	Michael WilsonWR · ARI	11.5	12.0	+0.5
74	Kyle PittsTE · ATL	11.5	5.3	−6.2
75	Brenton StrangeTE · JAX	11.5	4.2	−7.3
76	Braelon AllenRB · NYJ	11.5	5.4	−6.1
77	Tyler AllgeierRB · ARI	11.3	6.6	−4.7
78	Tucker KraftTE · GB	11.1	1.9	−9.2
79	DeMario DouglasWR · NE	11.1	15.2	+4.1
80	Blake CorumRB · LA	11.1	11.8	+0.7
81	Travis KelceTE · KC	11.0	17.3	+6.3
82	Daniel JonesQB · IND	10.9	10.3	−0.6
83	Dalton KincaidTE · BUF	10.8	5.8	−5.0
84	Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN	10.6	3.2	−7.4
85	T.J. HockensonTE · MIN	10.6	7.3	−3.3
86	Omar Cooper Jr.WR · NYJ	10.6	13.8	+3.2
87	Ashton JeantyRB · LV	10.3	7.0	−3.3
88	Gardner MinshewQB · ARI	10.3	7.0	−3.3
89	Devaughn VeleWR · NO	10.2	3.7	−6.5
90	Antonio WilliamsWR · WAS	10.2	5.5	−4.7
91	Aaron JonesRB · MIN	10.1	3.1	−7.0
92	Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLE	10.0	12.2	+2.2
93	Jordan AddisonWR · MIN	10.0	4.8	−5.2
94	Baker MayfieldQB · TB	10.0	7.7	−2.3
95	Emeka EgbukaQWR · TB	10.0	6.9	−3.1
96	Austin EkelerRB · WAS	9.9	5.4	−4.5
97	Jalen CokerWR · CAR	9.8	6.6	−3.2
98	Tre TuckerWR · LV	9.8	9.5	−0.3
99	Alvin KamaraRB · NO	9.8	7.9	−1.9
100	Khalil ShakirWR · BUF	9.7	9.8	+0.1
101	Josh DownsWR · IND	9.6	5.4	−4.2
102	Caleb DouglasWR · MIA	9.6	13.0	+3.4
103	Makai LemonWR · PHI	9.6	12.1	+2.5
104	Dalton SchultzTE · HOU	9.5	6.2	−3.3
105	Denzel BostonWR · CLE	9.5	15.8	+6.3
106	Ryan FlournoyWR · DAL	9.5	7.3	−2.2
107	Xavier WorthyWR · KC	9.5	10.8	+1.3
108	Malik WashingtonWR · MIA	9.5	4.1	−5.4
109	Adonai MitchellWR · NYJ	9.4	0.0	−9.4
110	KC ConcepcionWR · CLE	9.3	18.8	+9.5
111	Dallas GoedertTE · PHI	9.3	10.0	+0.7
112	Greg DulcichTE · MIA	9.2	3.4	−5.8
113	Courtland SuttonWR · DEN	9.1	15.5	+6.4
114	Keenan AllenWR · IND	9.0	6.6	−2.4
115	J.K. DobbinsRB · DEN	8.9	3.2	−5.7
116	Carson WentzQB · MIN	8.8	-2.8	−11.6
117	Mike Washington Jr.RB · LV	8.7	-0.3	−9.0
118	Michael MayerTE · LV	8.6	4.7	−3.9
119	Mike GesickiTE · CIN	8.6	3.1	−5.5
120	Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI	8.6	8.2	−0.4
121	Zach CharbonnetRB · SEA	8.5	9.6	+1.1
122	Jakobi MeyersWR · JAX	8.4	10.5	+2.1
123	Jordan MasonRB · MIN	8.4	6.2	−2.2
124	Chig OkonkwoTE · WAS	8.4	11.6	+3.2
125	Omarion HamptonRB · LAC	8.3	6.0	−2.3
126	Keon ColemanWR · BUF	8.3	4.7	−3.6
127	Juwan JohnsonTE · NO	8.3	11.4	+3.1
128	Kenny GainwellRB · TB	8.3	10.6	+2.3
129	Devin SingletaryRB · NYG	8.1	5.9	−2.2
130	Hunter HenryTE · NE	8.1	6.5	−1.6
131	Mason TaylorTE · NYJ	8.1	2.1	−6.0
132	Kaelon BlackRB · SF	8.1	7.0	−1.1
133	Elijah MitchellRB · PHI	8.1	5.6	−2.5
134	DJ MooreWR · BUF	8.0	6.6	−1.4
135	Xavier HutchinsonWR · HOU	8.0	11.9	+3.9
136	Eli RaridonTE · NE	7.9	8.2	+0.3
137	Malachi FieldsWR · NYG	7.5	7.0	−0.5
138	Jadarian PriceRB · SEA	7.4	11.8	+4.4
139	Tyler HigbeeTE · LA	7.4	2.3	−5.1
140	Quentin JohnstonWR · LAC	7.0	13.3	+6.3
141	Oronde Gadsden IITE · LAC	7.0	3.7	−3.3
142	Cooper KuppWR · SEA	7.0	6.2	−0.8
143	AJ BarnerTE · SEA	7.0	15.0	+8.0
144	Dylan SampsonRB · CLE	6.9	7.8	+0.9
145	Jordan WatkinsWR · SF	6.8	18.6	+11.8
146	Chris Godwin Jr.WR · TB	6.8	4.8	−2.0
147	Kimani VidalRB · LAC	6.7	4.6	−2.1
148	Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · JAX	6.7	11.2	+4.5
149	Jahan DotsonWR · ATL	6.5	3.6	−2.9
150	Efton Chism IIIWR · NE	6.5	15.9	+9.4
151	Dohnte MeyersWR · CIN	6.5	8.3	+1.8
152	Mark AndrewsTE · BAL	6.4	3.9	−2.5
153	Emmett JohnsonRB · KC	6.4	9.4	+3.0
154	Kenyon SadiqTE · NYJ	6.3	8.9	+2.6
155	Audric EstiméRB · NO	6.1	14.7	+8.6
156	Samaje PerineRB · CIN	6.1	4.3	−1.8
157	Mack HollinsWR · NE	6.0	12.6	+6.6
158	Tre HarrisWR · LAC	5.9	3.6	−2.3
159	Darren WallerTE · CAR	5.9	23.0	+17.1
160	Noah GrayTE · KC	5.9	2.1	−3.8
161	Kyle WilliamsWR · NE	5.9	0.0	−5.9
162	Charlie KolarTE · LAC	5.8	6.4	+0.6
163	Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · HOU	5.7	4.0	−1.7
164	Colby ParkinsonTE · LA	5.7	5.3	−0.4
165	Kalif RaymondWR · CHI	5.6	7.2	+1.6
166	Jacob CowingWR · SF	5.6	1.5	−4.1
167	Tommy TrembleTE · CAR	5.5	12.4	+6.9
168	Jalen NailorWR · LV	5.4	2.9	−2.5
169	Darius CooperWR · PHI	5.4	4.5	−0.9
170	Savion WilliamsWR · GB	5.3	12.8	+7.5
171	Justice HillRB · BAL	5.2	18.2	+13.0
172	Kayshon BoutteWR · HOU	5.2	28.5	+23.3
173	Brian Thomas Jr.WR · JAX	5.2	0.0	−5.2
174	Chris BellWR · MIA	5.2	0.0	−5.2
175	Evan EngramTE · DEN	5.2	7.3	+2.1
176	Joe FagnanoQB · BAL	5.1	-0.3	−5.4
177	Marvin Mims Jr.WR · DEN	5.1	1.5	−3.6
178	Brandin CooksWR · SF	5.1	4.5	−0.6
179	Darnell MooneyWR · NYG	5.1	8.0	+2.9
180	Seth McGowanRB · IND	4.9	11.2	+6.3
181	Corey KinerRB · NE	4.9	11.5	+6.6
182	Bryce LanceWR · NO	4.8	0.0	−4.8
183	Ty JohnsonRB · BUF	4.8	5.7	+0.9
184	John Metchie IIIWR · CAR	4.8	6.0	+1.2
185	Marquise BrownWR · PHI	4.8	2.6	−2.2
186	Tutu AtwellWR · LA	4.7	3.6	−1.1
187	Konata MumpfieldWR · LA	4.7	4.0	−0.7
188	Keaton MitchellRB · LAC	4.6	7.7	+3.1
189	Elijah HigginsTE · ARI	4.6	3.1	−1.5
190	Pierre StrongRB · GB	4.5	5.3	+0.8
191	Rashod BatemanWR · BAL	4.5	1.6	−2.9
192	Jerry JeudyWR · CLE	4.4	5.7	+1.3
193	Tory HortonWR · SEA	4.4	4.2	−0.2
194	Brevyn Spann-FordTE · DAL	4.4	4.0	−0.4
195	Kyle JuszczykRB · SF	4.4	0.4	−4.0
196	Eli StowersTE · PHI	4.4	0.0	−4.4
197	Josh CameronWR · JAX	4.2	1.6	−2.6
198	Emari DemercadoRB · HOU	4.1	3.4	−0.7
199	Ja'Kobi LaneWR · BAL	4.1	0.0	−4.1
200	Cade OttonTE · TB	4.1	6.5	+2.4
201	Tyler GoodsonRB · DAL	4.0	7.7	+3.7
202	Josh CuevasTE · BAL	4.0	0.0	−4.0
203	Isaiah WilliamsWR · NYJ	3.9	0.4	−3.5
204	Troy FranklinWR · DEN	3.9	6.1	+2.2
205	Noah FantTE · NO	3.8	2.2	−1.6
206	Dawson KnoxTE · BUF	3.8	7.7	+3.9
207	Theo JohnsonTE · NYG	3.8	0.0	−3.8
208	Lan LarisonRB · NE	3.7	0.4	−3.3
209	Joe Milton IIIQB · PHI	3.7	13.2	+9.5
210	Cyrus AllenWR · KC	3.6	0.0	−3.6
211	Laquon TreadwellWR · IND	3.6	0.0	−3.6
212	George HolaniRB · SEA	3.6	0.0	−3.6
213	Pat BryantQWR · DEN	3.5	15.6	+12.1
214	Nate BoerkircherTE · JAX	3.5	8.1	+4.6
215	Davis AllenTE · LA	3.5	0.0	−3.5
216	Drew LockQB · SEA	3.4	12.6	+9.2
217	Ted Hurst IIIWR · TB	3.4	0.0	−3.4
218	Jack BechWR · LV	3.3	1.9	−1.4
219	Tez JohnsonWR · TB	3.3	9.6	+6.3
220	Khalil HerbertRB · ATL	3.3	2.9	−0.4
221	Kevin Coleman Jr.WR · MIA	3.2	1.6	−1.6
222	Adam TrautmanTE · DEN	3.2	3.5	+0.3
223	Nate AdkinsTE · DEN	3.2	0.0	−3.2
224	Foster MoreauTE · HOU	3.1	0.0	−3.1
225	Reggie VirgilWR · ARI	3.1	3.5	+0.4
226	Tank DellWR · HOU	3.1	20.5	+17.4
227	Olamide ZaccheausWR · ATL	3.1	1.5	−1.6
228	Trevor EtienneRB · CAR	3.0	0.7	−2.3
229	Jameis WinstonQB · NYG	2.9	7.9	+5.0
230	Deion BurksWR · IND	2.9	1.0	−1.9
231	Kaleb JohnsonRB · GB	2.9	12.8	+9.9
232	KhaDarel HodgeWR · SF	2.9	2.7	−0.2
233	Demarcus RobinsonWR · SF	2.8	5.2	+2.4
234	Isaac TeSlaaWR · DET	2.8	1.9	−0.9
235	Shedeur SandersQB · CLE	2.7	22.7	+20.0
236	Simi FehokoWR · ARI	2.7	0.0	−2.7
237	Mitchell EvansTE · CAR	2.7	4.0	+1.3
238	Ray DavisRB · BUF	2.7	0.2	−2.5
239	Austin HooperTE · ATL	2.6	0.0	−2.6
240	Andrew ArmstrongWR · KC	2.6	0.0	−2.6
241	Elijah MooreWR · PHI	2.5	0.7	−1.8
242	Ashton DulinWR · IND	2.5	12.8	+10.3
243	Evan HullRB · ARI	2.4	0.0	−2.4
244	Jake FergusonTE · DAL	2.4	10.1	+7.7
245	Barion BrownWR · NO	2.4	4.2	+1.8
246	Devin DuvernayWR · ARI	2.4	2.8	+0.4
247	J. Michael SturdivantWR · GB	2.4	0.0	−2.4
248	Max BrosmerQB · MIN	2.3	2.3	±0.0
249	Mitchell TinsleyWR · CIN	2.2	1.4	−0.8
250	Travis HunterWR · JAX	2.2	-1.1	−3.3
251	Van JeffersonWR · WAS	2.2	16.8	+14.6
252	Gregory DesrosiersRB · NYG	2.1	2.0	−0.1
253	Brycen TremayneWR · CAR	2.1	0.0	−2.1
254	Drew SampleTE · CIN	2.1	0.0	−2.1
255	Bo MeltonWR · GB	2.1	0.0	−2.1
256	Jaden BradleyWR · WAS	2.0	2.2	+0.2
257	DeeJay DallasRB · MIN	2.0	1.2	−0.8
258	Jonnu SmithTE · GB	2.0	0.0	−2.0
259	Charlie WoernerTE · ATL	1.9	7.1	+5.2
260	Colbie YoungWR · CIN	1.9	0.0	−1.9
261	Zavion ThomasWR · CHI	1.8	2.3	+0.5
262	John BatesTE · WAS	1.8	0.0	−1.8
263	Will KacmarekTE · MIA	1.8	1.6	−0.2
264	David SillsWR · TB	1.8	0.0	−1.8
265	Jalen RoyalsWR · KC	1.8	3.8	+2.0
266	James MitchellTE · DAL	1.8	0.0	−1.8
267	Harrison Wallace IIIWR · ARI	1.7	0.0	−1.7
268	Ameer AbdullahRB · JAX	1.7	3.0	+1.3
269	Jordan JamesRB · SF	1.7	1.1	−0.6
270	Luke FarrellTE · SF	1.7	0.0	−1.7
271	Mo Alie-CoxTE · IND	1.6	0.0	−1.6
272	Eric SaubertTE · SEA	1.6	0.0	−1.6
273	Jelani WoodsTE · NYJ	1.6	0.0	−1.6
274	Oscar DelpTE · NO	1.6	0.0	−1.6
275	Matthew HibnerTE · BAL	1.6	1.5	−0.1
276	Tylan WallaceWR · CLE	1.6	1.6	±0.0
277	Kaytron AllenRB · MIA	1.6	5.5	+3.9
278	Luke McCaffreyWR · WAS	1.5	1.6	+0.1
279	KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR · LAC	1.5	6.0	+4.5
280	Zamir WhiteRB · NO	1.5	0.5	−1.0
281	Jonathan MingoWR · DAL	1.4	3.3	+1.9
282	Salvon AhmedRB · CHI	1.4	2.5	+1.1
283	Johnny MundtTE · PHI	1.4	0.0	−1.4
284	Jabari SmallRB · DET	1.4	0.0	−1.4
285	Dare OgunbowaleRB · HOU	1.4	1.3	−0.1
286	Sam RoushTE · CHI	1.4	4.3	+2.9
287	Malachi CorleyWR · CLE	1.3	0.0	−1.3
288	Hunter LuepkeRB · DAL	1.3	0.0	−1.3
289	Jack EndriesTE · CIN	1.3	1.4	+0.1
290	Sione VakiRB · DET	1.3	4.1	+2.8
291	Jeremy RuckertTE · NYJ	1.3	0.0	−1.3
292	Marlin KleinTE · HOU	1.3	0.0	−1.3
293	Mark RedmanTE · GB	1.3	0.0	−1.3
294	Teagan QuitorianoTE · ARI	1.3	1.8	+0.5
295	Blake WhiteheartTE · CLE	1.3	0.0	−1.3
296	Brevin JordanTE · HOU	1.3	0.0	−1.3
297	Devontez WalkerWR · BAL	1.2	0.0	−1.2
298	Jared WayneWR · MIA	1.2	0.0	−1.2
299	Tyrod TaylorQB · GB	1.2	0.0	−1.2
300	Nick MuseTE · ATL	1.2	0.0	−1.2
301	Jordan HudsonWR · DAL	1.2	0.0	−1.2
302	LeQuint Allen Jr.RB · JAX	1.2	0.0	−1.2
303	Myles PriceWR · MIN	1.1	1.6	+0.5
304	Brock WrightTE · DET	1.1	0.0	−1.1
305	Chris BlairWR · ATL	1.1	0.0	−1.1
306	Dareke YoungWR · LV	1.1	0.0	−1.1
307	Jordan WhittingtonWR · LA	1.1	0.0	−1.1
308	Jackson HawesTE · BUF	1.1	1.8	+0.7
309	LaJohntay WesterWR · BAL	1.1	0.4	−0.7
310	Jake BriningstoolTE · KC	1.1	1.3	+0.2
311	Ian ThomasTE · LV	1.1	0.0	−1.1
312	Jahdae WalkerWR · CHI	1.1	0.0	−1.1
313	Bauer SharpTE · TB	1.1	0.0	−1.1
314	Jordyn TysonWR · NO	1.0	5.0	+4.0
315	CJ DanielsWR · LA	1.0	0.0	−1.0
316	Ben SinnottTE · WAS	1.0	0.0	−1.0
317	Tanner KoziolTE · JAX	1.0	3.5	+2.5
318	Tanner ArkinTE · NE	1.0	0.0	−1.0
319	Tyler ConklinTE · DET	1.0	0.0	−1.0
320	Hayden RucciTE · LAC	0.9	0.0	−0.9
321	Adam PrenticeRB · DEN	0.9	0.0	−0.9
322	Patrick RicardRB · NYG	0.9	0.0	−0.9
323	Connor HeywardRB · LV	0.9	0.0	−0.9
324	Mac JonesQB · SF	0.9	-0.3	−1.2
325	Grant CalcaterraTE · PHI	0.9	0.0	−0.9
326	Colson YankoffTE · WAS	0.9	1.6	+0.7
327	Jalin HyattWR · NYG	0.9	0.0	−0.9
328	Derius DavisWR · LAC	0.8	8.5	+7.7
329	Andrew OgletreeTE · IND	0.8	0.0	−0.8
330	Malik McClainWR · NYJ	0.8	0.0	−0.8
331	Seydou TraoreTE · MIA	0.8	0.0	−0.8
332	Dylan LaubeRB · LV	0.8	0.0	−0.8
333	Payne DurhamTE · TB	0.8	0.0	−0.8
334	DJ HermanRB · MIA	0.7	0.0	−0.7
335	Michael BurtonRB · CLE	0.7	0.0	−0.7
336	Jaydn OttRB · KC	0.7	1.9	+1.2
337	Tommy DeVitoQB · NE	0.7	0.8	+0.1
338	Beaux CollinsWR · ATL	0.6	0.0	−0.6
339	Carlos WashingtonRB · MIA	0.6	1.8	+1.2
340	Brady RussellRB · SEA	0.6	0.0	−0.6
341	Montorie Foster JrWR · SEA	0.6	0.0	−0.6
342	Justin FieldsQB · KC	0.6	-2.1	−2.7
343	Andrew BeckRB · NYJ	0.6	0.0	−0.6
344	Coleman OwenWR · GB	0.5	0.0	−0.5
345	Brayden WillisTE · SF	0.5	0.0	−0.5
346	Cam GrandyTE · CIN	0.5	0.0	−0.5
347	Davis MillsQB · HOU	0.5	0.1	−0.4
348	Chris ManhertzTE · NYG	0.5	0.0	−0.5
349	DJ UiagaleleiQB · LAC	0.5	5.0	+4.5
350	Nick VannettTE · BAL	0.5	0.0	−0.5
351	Anthony GouldWR · IND	0.4	2.6	+2.2
352	Scott MatlockRB · LAC	0.4	0.0	−0.4
353	Quintin MorrisTE · JAX	0.4	0.0	−0.4
354	Stephen CarlsonTE · CHI	0.4	0.0	−0.4
355	Camden BrownWR · DAL	0.3	0.0	−0.3
356	Tay MartinWR · DET	0.3	2.1	+1.8
357	Keleki LatuTE · BUF	0.3	9.5	+9.2
358	Kyle AllenQB · BUF	0.3	-0.2	−0.5
359	Feleipe FranksTE · CAR	0.3	0.0	−0.3
360	Ko KieftTE · TB	0.3	0.0	−0.3
361	Jared WileyTE · KC	0.2	0.0	−0.2
362	Nick KallerupTE · SEA	0.2	0.0	−0.2
363	DeAndre CarterWR · DET	0.2	1.5	+1.3

Week 8

343 players scored · 90 projected for 10+ PPR

Week 8 rankings vs results, every player →

For all 90 players we projected for 10+ PPR points, our projection missed by 6.8 points on a typical player. On the 89 of them with a season average to compare, simply using that average would have missed by 7.2 and ours by 6.8: our projections were 6% closer.

Graded on the projections readers saw.

Closer than the season average

6.8 vs 7.2 points, on the 89 players with a season average to compare

Within 7 points

57 of 90

within 5: 41 of 90

Did the ranking work?

Yes

Players we ranked higher scored 5.6 more points on average (16.9 vs 11.3).

Usage: targets

1.8

average miss in targets per player

Average miss by position

QB7.0 points · 27 players

RB6.6 points · 25 players

TE5.9 points · 9 players

WR7.0 points · 29 players

Scored more than projected

Tee Higgins projected 17.0, scored 37.5
Joe Burrow projected 22.2, scored 39.5
Tony Pollard projected 12.5, scored 28.7
Michael Wilson projected 11.4, scored 26.8
Bhayshul Tuten projected 14.7, scored 29.9

Scored less than projected

Lamar Jackson projected 17.4, scored 0.0
Zay Flowers projected 17.3, scored 0.0
Michael Penix Jr. projected 15.0, scored -1.9
Tre Tucker projected 12.9, scored 0.0
Javonte Williams projected 19.4, scored 6.7

Every player, Week 8 (343)

#	Player	Projected PPRProj	Scored PPRScored	DifferenceDiff
1	Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET	23.9	24.8	+0.9
2	Drake MayeQB · NE	22.5	22.5	±0.0
3	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA	22.3	23.8	+1.5
4	Joe BurrowQB · CIN	22.2	39.5	+17.3
5	Josh AllenQB · BUF	21.7	26.6	+4.9
6	Puka NacuaWR · LA	20.5	25.0	+4.5
7	James CookRB · BUF	20.1	18.1	−2.0
8	Jared GoffQB · DET	20.1	9.0	−11.1
9	Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX	19.9	19.4	−0.5
10	Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL	19.4	6.7	−12.7
11	Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN	19.2	31.1	+11.9
12	Jayden DanielsQB · WAS	19.2	15.0	−4.2
13	Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET	19.0	12.6	−6.4
14	Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL	18.9	7.6	−11.3
15	CeeDee LambWR · DAL	18.6	12.8	−5.8
16	Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC	18.0	12.4	−5.6
17	Kyren WilliamsRB · LA	17.9	12.9	−5.0
18	Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI	17.5	14.0	−3.5
19	Jordan LoveQB · GB	17.5	21.5	+4.0
20	Lamar JacksonQB · BAL	17.4	0.0	−17.4
21	Matthew StaffordQB · LA	17.4	8.3	−9.1
22	Zay FlowersWR · BAL	17.3	0.0	−17.3
23	Dak PrescottQB · DAL	17.0	19.8	+2.8
24	Tee HigginsWR · CIN	17.0	37.5	+20.5
25	Chase BrownRB · CIN	16.9	16.1	−0.8
26	Kirk CousinsQB · LV	16.5	28.2	+11.7
27	Josh JacobsRB · GB	16.4	23.2	+6.8
28	D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI	16.2	27.9	+11.7
29	Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT	15.9	21.3	+5.4
30	Trey McBrideTE · ARI	15.8	20.2	+4.4
31	Jonathan TaylorRB · IND	15.8	6.7	−9.1
32	Chuba HubbardRB · CAR	15.6	24.9	+9.3
33	Brock BowersTE · LV	15.5	28.2	+12.7
34	Aaron RodgersQB · PIT	15.3	4.9	−10.4
35	Christian WatsonWR · GB	15.3	17.3	+2.0
36	Derrick HenryRB · BAL	15.1	14.0	−1.1
37	Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL	15.0	-1.9	−16.9
38	Bucky IrvingRB · TB	15.0	21.0	+6.0
39	Bhayshul TutenRB · JAX	14.7	29.9	+15.2
40	Sam DarnoldQB · SEA	14.5	17.5	+3.0
41	Drake LondonWR · ATL	14.4	1.8	−12.6
42	Parker WashingtonWR · JAX	14.2	3.6	−10.6
43	Deshaun WatsonQB · CLE	14.1	11.2	−2.9
44	Bryce YoungQB · CAR	13.9	10.4	−3.5
45	Rhamondre StevensonRB · NE	13.9	12.0	−1.9
46	Jameson WilliamsWR · DET	13.8	17.0	+3.2
47	Bo NixQB · DEN	13.7	19.3	+5.6
48	Kyler MurrayQB · MIN	13.7	19.9	+6.2
49	Geno SmithQB · NYJ	13.7	18.0	+4.3
50	Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI	13.5	3.5	−10.0
51	Ashton JeantyRB · LV	13.5	10.3	−3.2
52	Patrick MahomesQB · KC	13.4	25.4	+12.0
53	Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ	13.4	14.3	+0.9
54	Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR	13.3	11.8	−1.5
55	Malik WillisQB · MIA	13.2	14.6	+1.4
56	Brenton StrangeTE · JAX	12.9	7.5	−5.4
57	Rashee RiceWR · KC	12.9	18.3	+5.4
58	Tre TuckerWR · LV	12.9	0.0	−12.9
59	Justin JeffersonWR · MIN	12.8	14.3	+1.5
60	Justin HerbertQB · LAC	12.7	7.8	−4.9
61	DK MetcalfWR · PIT	12.7	1.4	−11.3
62	Tony PollardRB · TEN	12.5	28.7	+16.2
63	Baker MayfieldQB · TB	12.4	1.4	−11.0
64	Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLE	12.3	6.9	−5.4
65	Ollie Gordon IIRB · MIA	12.1	6.9	−5.2
66	Tucker KraftTE · GB	12.0	17.3	+5.3
67	Stefon DiggsWR · WAS	12.0	12.8	+0.8
68	Rachaad WhiteRB · WAS	12.0	14.0	+2.0
69	Sam LaPortaTE · DET	11.9	6.5	−5.4
70	Tanner McKeeQQB · PHI	11.7	7.0	−4.7
71	Jeremiyah LoveRB · ARI	11.5	2.3	−9.2
72	Tyler WarrenTE · IND	11.5	5.8	−5.7
73	Omar Cooper Jr.WR · NYJ	11.5	0.0	−11.5
74	Michael WilsonWR · ARI	11.4	26.8	+15.4
75	Hunter HenryTE · NE	11.4	6.0	−5.4
76	Braelon AllenRB · NYJ	11.4	23.3	+11.9
77	Colston LovelandTE · CHI	11.2	11.5	+0.3
78	Luther Burden IIIWR · CHI	11.0	18.6	+7.6
79	Kyle PittsTE · ATL	10.9	2.6	−8.3
80	Daniel JonesQB · IND	10.9	6.5	−4.4
81	Rome OdunzeWR · CHI	10.6	12.7	+2.1
82	George PickensWR · DAL	10.6	6.8	−3.8
83	Aaron JonesRB · MIN	10.6	6.0	−4.6
84	Germie BernardWR · PIT	10.5	8.0	−2.5
85	Chris Godwin Jr.WR · TB	10.5	0.0	−10.5
86	Blake CorumRB · LA	10.4	13.3	+2.9
87	Makai LemonWR · PHI	10.3	11.7	+1.4
88	KC ConcepcionWR · CLE	10.2	6.7	−3.5
89	Matthew GoldenWR · GB	10.2	20.9	+10.7
90	Ryan FlournoyWR · DAL	10.1	13.1	+3.0
91	T.J. HockensonTE · MIN	9.8	15.8	+6.0
92	Jordan MasonRB · MIN	9.8	2.0	−7.8
93	Jordan AddisonWR · MIN	9.8	11.6	+1.8
94	DeMario DouglasWR · NE	9.8	16.6	+6.8
95	Travis KelceTE · KC	9.7	11.7	+2.0
96	Khalil ShakirWR · BUF	9.5	11.4	+1.9
97	J.K. DobbinsRB · DEN	9.5	1.3	−8.2
98	Keon ColemanWR · BUF	9.4	1.4	−8.0
99	Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TEN	9.4	15.7	+6.3
100	Josh DownsWR · IND	9.3	12.3	+3.0
101	Cam WardQB · TEN	9.2	26.3	+17.1
102	Dallas GoedertTE · PHI	9.1	7.2	−1.9
103	Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI	9.1	12.4	+3.3
104	Malik WashingtonWR · MIA	9.0	15.0	+6.0
105	Chig OkonkwoTE · WAS	9.0	3.2	−5.8
106	Denzel BostonWR · CLE	8.9	9.7	+0.8
107	Caleb DouglasWR · MIA	8.9	8.3	−0.6
108	Omarion HamptonRB · LAC	8.8	4.7	−4.1
109	Xavier WorthyWR · KC	8.8	4.3	−4.5
110	MarShawn LloydRB · GB	8.8	2.6	−6.2
111	Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLE	8.6	23.4	+14.8
112	Tyler HuntleyQB · BAL	8.5	-2.0	−10.5
113	Mark AndrewsTE · BAL	8.5	4.4	−4.1
114	Keenan AllenWR · IND	8.5	13.7	+5.2
115	Jalen CokerWR · CAR	8.5	9.6	+1.1
116	Mason TaylorTE · NYJ	8.5	4.9	−3.6
117	Rico DowdleRB · PIT	8.4	11.6	+3.2
118	Jonah ColemanRB · DEN	8.3	20.4	+12.1
119	Michael MayerTE · LV	8.3	10.3	+2.0
120	Tyler HigbeeTE · LA	8.2	2.4	−5.8
121	Dalton KincaidTE · BUF	8.0	18.6	+10.6
122	Mike GesickiTE · CIN	8.0	17.6	+9.6
123	Pat FreiermuthTE · PIT	7.9	11.6	+3.7
124	Greg DulcichTE · MIA	7.9	8.3	+0.4
125	Jeremy McNicholsRB · WAS	7.8	3.8	−4.0
126	AJ BarnerTE · SEA	7.6	4.3	−3.3
127	Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN	7.5	14.9	+7.4
128	Antonio WilliamsWR · WAS	7.5	10.4	+2.9
129	Jake FergusonTE · DAL	7.4	0.0	−7.4
130	Eli RaridonTE · NE	7.4	1.5	−5.9
131	Courtland SuttonWR · DEN	7.3	9.3	+2.0
132	DJ MooreWR · BUF	7.2	16.6	+9.4
133	Darren WallerTE · CAR	7.1	2.1	−5.0
134	Cooper KuppWR · SEA	7.0	7.7	+0.7
135	Kendrick BourneWR · ARI	6.9	3.9	−3.0
136	Adonai MitchellWR · NYJ	6.8	27.2	+20.4
137	Dohnte MeyersWR · CIN	6.8	6.4	−0.4
138	Cade OttonTE · TB	6.8	0.0	−6.8
139	Quentin JohnstonWR · LAC	6.7	7.7	+1.0
140	Rashod BatemanWR · BAL	6.6	3.2	−3.4
141	Jakobi MeyersWR · JAX	6.6	4.4	−2.2
142	Tre HarrisWR · LAC	6.5	6.1	−0.4
143	Savion WilliamsWR · GB	6.5	3.3	−3.2
144	Kenny GainwellRB · TB	6.5	14.0	+7.5
145	Tyler AllgeierRB · ARI	6.4	36.1	+29.7
146	Samaje PerineRB · CIN	6.4	2.9	−3.5
147	Austin EkelerRB · WAS	6.4	5.6	−0.8
148	Kimani VidalRB · LAC	6.3	5.0	−1.3
149	Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · JAX	6.3	12.8	+6.5
150	Jahan DotsonWR · ATL	6.2	11.5	+5.3
151	Mike Washington Jr.RB · LV	6.2	8.3	+2.1
152	Tez JohnsonWR · TB	6.2	0.0	−6.2
153	Jadarian PriceRB · SEA	6.0	5.7	−0.3
154	Charlie KolarTE · LAC	6.0	3.0	−3.0
155	Justice HillRB · BAL	6.0	7.5	+1.5
156	Ja'Kobi LaneWR · BAL	6.0	2.3	−3.7
157	Efton Chism IIIWR · NE	6.0	6.7	+0.7
158	Darius CooperWR · PHI	6.0	3.9	−2.1
159	Bam KnightRB · ARI	5.9	0.8	−5.1
160	Darnell WashingtonTE · PIT	5.9	12.4	+6.5
161	Ted Hurst IIIWR · TB	5.9	0.0	−5.9
162	Keaton MitchellRB · LAC	5.8	5.3	−0.5
163	Tommy TrembleTE · CAR	5.7	2.9	−2.8
164	Jerry JeudyWR · CLE	5.7	0.0	−5.7
165	Elic AyomanorWR · TEN	5.7	6.4	+0.7
166	Evan EngramTE · DEN	5.7	0.0	−5.7
167	Oronde Gadsden IITE · LAC	5.6	10.2	+4.6
168	Pierre StrongRB · GB	5.5	0.2	−5.3
169	Marquise BrownWR · PHI	5.4	3.7	−1.7
170	Ty JohnsonRB · BUF	5.3	5.3	±0.0
171	George HolaniRB · SEA	5.3	0.9	−4.4
172	Isaac TeSlaaWR · DET	5.3	0.0	−5.3
173	Noah GrayTE · KC	5.2	9.5	+4.3
174	Kenyon SadiqTE · NYJ	5.2	3.2	−2.0
175	Konata MumpfieldWR · LA	5.2	0.0	−5.2
176	Treylon BurksWR · WAS	5.2	11.1	+5.9
177	KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR · LAC	5.0	0.0	−5.0
178	Josh CameronWR · JAX	5.0	0.0	−5.0
179	Jalen NailorWR · LV	5.0	13.8	+8.8
180	Kalif RaymondWR · CHI	4.9	7.3	+2.4
181	Dylan SampsonRB · CLE	4.9	12.9	+8.0
182	Will MalloryTE · IND	4.9	0.0	−4.9
183	Marvin Mims Jr.WR · DEN	4.8	4.9	+0.1
184	John Metchie IIIWR · CAR	4.8	4.4	−0.4
185	Jauan JenningsWR · MIN	4.8	3.1	−1.7
186	Elijah MitchellRB · PHI	4.8	7.7	+2.9
187	Chris BellWR · MIA	4.8	6.9	+2.1
188	Seth McGowanRB · IND	4.7	2.9	−1.8
189	Emmett JohnsonRB · KC	4.7	25.3	+20.6
190	Gunnar HelmTE · TEN	4.7	14.6	+9.9
191	Calvin RidleyWR · TEN	4.6	2.0	−2.6
192	Roschon JohnsonRB · CHI	4.5	3.8	−0.7
193	Zach CharbonnetRB · SEA	4.4	5.9	+1.5
194	Dyami BrownWR · WAS	4.3	0.0	−4.3
195	Andrew ArmstrongWR · KC	4.2	0.0	−4.2
196	Kyle WilliamsWR · NE	4.1	11.3	+7.2
197	Corey KinerRB · NE	4.0	3.8	−0.2
198	Troy FranklinWR · DEN	4.0	1.3	−2.7
199	Trevor EtienneRB · CAR	3.9	0.1	−3.8
200	Brian Thomas Jr.WR · JAX	3.8	8.2	+4.4
201	Tory HortonWR · SEA	3.7	7.6	+3.9
202	Tutu AtwellWR · LA	3.7	7.2	+3.5
203	Josh CuevasTE · BAL	3.6	2.5	−1.1
204	Davis AllenTE · LA	3.6	2.8	−0.8
205	Michael CarterRB · TEN	3.5	0.0	−3.5
206	Laquon TreadwellWR · IND	3.5	2.8	−0.7
207	Isaiah DavisRB · NYJ	3.5	1.5	−2.0
208	Dawson KnoxTE · BUF	3.5	1.6	−1.9
209	Nate BoerkircherTE · JAX	3.5	10.1	+6.6
210	Chimere DikeWR · TEN	3.5	18.1	+14.6
211	Elijah HigginsTE · ARI	3.5	3.0	−0.5
212	Zachariah BranchWR · ATL	3.4	0.0	−3.4
213	Brycen TremayneWR · CAR	3.4	2.1	−1.3
214	Ladd McConkeyWR · LAC	3.4	12.6	+9.2
215	Jaylen WrightRB · MIA	3.4	0.5	−2.9
216	Daniel BellingerTE · TEN	3.2	6.6	+3.4
217	Josh PalmerWR · BUF	3.2	0.0	−3.2
218	Elijah MooreWR · PHI	3.1	0.0	−3.1
219	Mitchell EvansTE · CAR	3.0	4.2	+1.2
220	Khalil HerbertRB · ATL	3.0	2.5	−0.5
221	Gavin BartholomewTE · MIN	2.9	0.0	−2.9
222	Jaydon BlueRB · PHI	2.8	1.9	−0.9
223	Tyler GoodsonRB · DAL	2.7	5.3	+2.6
224	Jalen RoyalsWR · KC	2.7	1.4	−1.3
225	Mo Alie-CoxTE · IND	2.7	0.0	−2.7
226	Ryan MillerWR · NE	2.6	0.0	−2.6
227	Brevyn Spann-FordTE · DAL	2.6	7.1	+4.5
228	Isaiah WilliamsWR · NYJ	2.6	8.8	+6.2
229	David SillsWR · TB	2.5	0.0	−2.5
230	Drew SampleTE · CIN	2.5	0.0	−2.5
231	Brandon SmithWR · PIT	2.5	0.0	−2.5
232	Devontez WalkerWR · BAL	2.4	0.0	−2.4
233	Kevin Coleman Jr.WR · MIA	2.4	13.6	+11.2
234	Ray DavisRB · BUF	2.4	3.0	+0.6
235	Austin HooperTE · ATL	2.4	1.9	−0.5
236	Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · DEN	2.4	2.0	−0.4
237	Lan LarisonRB · NE	2.3	0.6	−1.7
238	Adam TrautmanTE · DEN	2.2	5.0	+2.8
239	Travis HunterWR · JAX	2.2	0.5	−1.7
240	Cyrus AllenWR · KC	2.2	4.0	+1.8
241	Jalen TolbertWR · MIA	2.0	1.8	−0.2
242	Olamide ZaccheausWR · ATL	2.0	1.4	−0.6
243	Jonathan MingoWR · DAL	2.0	0.0	−2.0
244	Bo MeltonWR · GB	2.0	0.0	−2.0
245	Charlie WoernerTE · ATL	1.9	0.0	−1.9
246	Eric SaubertTE · SEA	1.9	0.0	−1.9
247	Nate AdkinsTE · DEN	1.9	8.4	+6.5
248	Will KacmarekTE · MIA	1.8	0.0	−1.8
249	Eli StowersTE · PHI	1.8	8.3	+6.5
250	Johnny MundtTE · PHI	1.8	0.0	−1.8
251	Jack BechWR · LV	1.6	0.0	−1.6
252	Jaleel McLaughlinRB · CLE	1.6	0.0	−1.6
253	Deion BurksWR · IND	1.6	1.2	−0.4
254	Chris BlairWR · ATL	1.5	0.0	−1.5
255	John BatesTE · WAS	1.5	0.0	−1.5
256	Isaiah BondWR · CLE	1.5	0.0	−1.5
257	Sione VakiRB · DET	1.4	8.0	+6.6
258	Brock WrightTE · DET	1.4	0.0	−1.4
259	Reggie VirgilWR · ARI	1.4	0.0	−1.4
260	Matthew HibnerTE · BAL	1.4	0.0	−1.4
261	Myles PriceWR · MIN	1.4	0.0	−1.4
262	Ian ThomasTE · LV	1.4	0.0	−1.4
263	Jelani WoodsTE · NYJ	1.4	0.0	−1.4
264	Ben YurosekTE · MIN	1.4	3.4	+2.0
265	Tylan WallaceWR · CLE	1.4	1.3	−0.1
266	Mark RedmanTE · GB	1.4	0.0	−1.4
267	Zavion ThomasWR · CHI	1.3	1.4	+0.1
268	LeQuint Allen Jr.RB · JAX	1.3	0.0	−1.3
269	Hunter LuepkeRB · DAL	1.3	0.0	−1.3
270	J. Michael SturdivantWR · GB	1.3	2.6	+1.3
271	Colbie YoungWR · CIN	1.3	0.0	−1.3
272	Malachi CorleyWR · CLE	1.3	0.0	−1.3
273	Tai FeltonWR · MIN	1.3	0.0	−1.3
274	Luke McCaffreyWR · WAS	1.3	0.0	−1.3
275	Cody SchraderRB · DEN	1.3	0.0	−1.3
276	Teagan QuitorianoTE · ARI	1.2	0.0	−1.2
277	Jeremy RuckertTE · NYJ	1.2	0.0	−1.2
278	Jordan WhittingtonWR · LA	1.2	0.0	−1.2
279	Van JeffersonWR · WAS	1.2	0.0	−1.2
280	Brandon JohnsonWR · PIT	1.2	1.9	+0.7
281	Sam RoushTE · CHI	1.2	0.0	−1.2
282	Grant CalcaterraTE · PHI	1.2	0.0	−1.2
283	Derius DavisWR · LAC	1.2	0.0	−1.2
284	Nick MuseTE · ATL	1.1	0.0	−1.1
285	CJ DanielsWR · LA	1.1	0.0	−1.1
286	Colson YankoffTE · WAS	1.1	0.0	−1.1
287	Ben SinnottTE · WAS	1.1	0.0	−1.1
288	Ameer AbdullahRB · JAX	1.1	1.3	+0.2
289	DeeJay DallasRB · MIN	1.1	0.4	−0.7
290	Seydou TraoreTE · MIA	1.1	0.0	−1.1
291	Dylan LaubeRB · LV	1.1	6.0	+4.9
292	Simi FehokoWR · ARI	1.0	2.7	+1.7
293	DJ GiddensRB · IND	1.0	4.3	+3.3
294	Ashton DulinWR · IND	0.9	0.3	−0.6
295	Shedeur SandersQB · CLE	0.9	0.1	−0.8
296	Brady RussellRB · SEA	0.9	0.0	−0.9
297	Blake WhiteheartTE · CLE	0.9	1.9	+1.0
298	Connor HeywardRB · LV	0.9	0.0	−0.9
299	Bauer SharpTE · TB	0.9	0.0	−0.9
300	Jahdae WalkerWR · CHI	0.9	0.0	−0.9
301	Hayden RucciTE · LAC	0.9	0.0	−0.9
302	Adam PrenticeRB · DEN	0.9	2.0	+1.1
303	DJ HermanRB · MIA	0.9	0.0	−0.9
304	Lew Nichols IIIRB · PIT	0.9	0.0	−0.9
305	Anthony RichardsonQB · IND	0.9	0.7	−0.2
306	Rasheen AliRB · BAL	0.9	0.5	−0.4
307	Jake BriningstoolTE · KC	0.9	1.6	+0.7
308	Payne DurhamTE · TB	0.8	0.0	−0.8
309	Jackson HawesTE · BUF	0.8	1.7	+0.9
310	Dareke YoungWR · LV	0.8	0.0	−0.8
311	Kameron JohnsonWR · TB	0.7	0.0	−0.7
312	Tyler ConklinTE · DET	0.7	1.7	+1.0
313	Michael BurtonRB · CLE	0.7	0.0	−0.7
314	Mason RudolphQB · PIT	0.7	0.0	−0.7
315	Julius ChestnutRB · TEN	0.7	0.0	−0.7
316	Andrew OgletreeTE · IND	0.7	0.0	−0.7
317	LaJohntay WesterWR · BAL	0.6	0.0	−0.6
318	Riley NowakowskiRB · PIT	0.6	0.0	−0.6
319	Greg DortchWR · BUF	0.6	0.0	−0.6
320	Cam GrandyTE · CIN	0.6	0.0	−0.6
321	Max BredesonRB · MIN	0.6	0.0	−0.6
322	James MitchellTE · DAL	0.5	0.0	−0.5
323	Devin DuvernayWR · ARI	0.4	3.4	+3.0
324	Stephen CarlsonTE · CHI	0.4	0.0	−0.4
325	Nick KallerupTE · SEA	0.4	0.0	−0.4
326	Max KlareTE · LA	0.4	0.0	−0.4
327	Jack EndriesTE · CIN	0.4	7.1	+6.7
328	Scott MatlockRB · LAC	0.4	0.0	−0.4
329	Tanner ArkinTE · NE	0.4	0.0	−0.4
330	Robert TonyanTE · PIT	0.4	0.0	−0.4
331	Joe FagnanoQB · BAL	0.4	-0.1	−0.5
332	Quintin MorrisTE · JAX	0.4	0.0	−0.4
333	Camden BrownWR · DAL	0.4	0.0	−0.4
334	Tanner KoziolTE · JAX	0.4	1.8	+1.4
335	David Martin-RobinsonTE · TEN	0.4	0.0	−0.4
336	Nick VannettTE · BAL	0.4	0.0	−0.4
337	Quinn EwersQB · JAX	0.3	0.3	±0.0
338	Josh WhyleTE · GB	0.3	0.0	−0.3
339	Cameron LatuTE · NE	0.3	0.0	−0.3
340	Gardner MinshewQB · ARI	0.3	19.5	+19.2
341	Keleki LatuTE · BUF	0.3	0.0	−0.3
342	Tay MartinWR · DET	0.2	0.0	−0.2
343	Kyle AllenQB · BUF	0.2	-0.2	−0.4

Week 7

341 players scored · 97 projected for 10+ PPR

Week 7 rankings vs results, every player →

For all 97 players we projected for 10+ PPR points, our projection missed by 6.1 points on a typical player. On the 96 of them with a season average to compare, simply using that average would have missed by 6.4 and ours by 6.1: our projections were 4% closer.

Graded on the projections readers saw.

Closer than the season average

6.1 vs 6.4 points, on the 96 players with a season average to compare

Within 7 points

59 of 97

within 5: 46 of 97

Did the ranking work?

Yes

Players we ranked higher scored 3.3 more points on average (16.4 vs 13.1).

Usage: targets

1.6

average miss in targets per player

Average miss by position

QB5.3 points · 27 players

RB6.5 points · 24 players

TE5.5 points · 11 players

WR6.6 points · 35 players

Scored more than projected

Tony Pollard projected 11.6, scored 36.5
Jameson Williams projected 11.3, scored 26.1
Tee Higgins projected 13.2, scored 26.8
Malik Willis projected 12.5, scored 26.0
Luther Burden III projected 10.7, scored 23.7

Scored less than projected

Nico Collins projected 14.2, scored 2.6
Bryce Young projected 16.3, scored 5.4
Garrett Wilson projected 15.3, scored 4.6
Aaron Jones projected 14.2, scored 3.6
Jalen Coker projected 11.9, scored 1.9

Every player, Week 7 (341)

#	Player	Projected PPRProj	Scored PPRScored	DifferenceDiff
1	Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET	23.9	17.3	−6.6
2	Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL	22.0	17.2	−4.8
3	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA	21.1	31.3	+10.2
4	Jared GoffQB · DET	20.9	18.0	−2.9
5	Drake MayeQB · NE	20.2	27.4	+7.2
6	Christian McCaffreyRB · SF	19.6	22.0	+2.4
7	Brock PurdyQB · SF	19.4	12.0	−7.4
8	Joe BurrowQB · CIN	19.3	28.9	+9.6
9	Kyren WilliamsRB · LA	18.8	18.1	−0.7
10	Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC	18.7	9.7	−9.0
11	Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI	17.8	22.1	+4.3
12	Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET	17.8	24.2	+6.4
13	Matthew StaffordQB · LA	17.8	17.5	−0.3
14	Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT	17.3	16.7	−0.6
15	Chuba HubbardRB · CAR	17.2	10.0	−7.2
16	Jonathan TaylorRB · IND	17.1	19.0	+1.9
17	C.J. StroudQB · HOU	17.0	16.5	−0.5
18	Jordan LoveQB · GB	17.0	17.0	±0.0
19	Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN	17.0	17.2	+0.2
20	Brock BowersTE · LV	16.9	13.3	−3.6
21	Aaron RodgersQB · PIT	16.7	13.1	−3.6
22	Malik NabersWR · NYG	16.4	18.1	+1.7
23	Bryce YoungQB · CAR	16.3	5.4	−10.9
24	CeeDee LambWR · DAL	16.3	24.4	+8.1
25	Kirk CousinsQB · LV	16.3	20.4	+4.1
26	Zay FlowersWR · BAL	16.2	27.7	+11.5
27	Patrick MahomesQB · KC	16.0	6.0	−10.0
28	Dak PrescottQB · DAL	15.7	23.3	+7.6
29	Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL	15.7	21.5	+5.8
30	Derrick HenryRB · BAL	15.6	5.9	−9.7
31	Christian WatsonWR · GB	15.6	10.7	−4.9
32	Chris OlaveWR · NO	15.5	11.6	−3.9
33	Tyler ShoughQB · NO	15.4	13.8	−1.6
34	Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ	15.3	4.6	−10.7
35	Drake LondonWR · ATL	15.1	19.6	+4.5
36	Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR	15.1	8.0	−7.1
37	Trey McBrideTE · ARI	14.9	27.1	+12.2
38	Sam DarnoldQB · SEA	14.9	14.0	−0.9
39	Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI	14.8	16.5	+1.7
40	J.J. McCarthyQB · NYG	14.8	10.2	−4.6
41	Deshaun WatsonQB · CLE	14.6	18.2	+3.6
42	Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL	14.4	20.4	+6.0
43	Bucky IrvingRB · TB	14.3	24.0	+9.7
44	DK MetcalfWR · PIT	14.2	7.6	−6.6
45	Nico CollinsWR · HOU	14.2	2.6	−11.6
46	Aaron JonesRB · MIN	14.2	3.6	−10.6
47	Justin JeffersonWR · MIN	14.2	8.4	−5.8
48	Bo NixQB · DEN	14.0	26.2	+12.2
49	Matthew GoldenWR · GB	14.0	9.9	−4.1
50	George PickensWR · DAL	13.9	15.7	+1.8
51	George KittleTE · SF	13.8	14.8	+1.0
52	D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI	13.7	19.0	+5.3
53	Ollie Gordon IIRB · MIA	13.6	17.3	+3.7
54	Chase BrownRB · CIN	13.6	9.8	−3.8
55	Ashton JeantyRB · LV	13.5	21.6	+8.1
56	Geno SmithQB · NYJ	13.3	23.5	+10.2
57	Tee HigginsWR · CIN	13.2	26.8	+13.6
58	Isaiah LikelyTE · NYG	13.1	3.2	−9.9
59	Puka NacuaWR · LA	13.0	21.8	+8.8
60	Dameon PierceRB · PHI	13.0	11.8	−1.2
61	Kyler MurrayQB · MIN	12.9	13.9	+1.0
62	Sam LaPortaTE · DET	12.8	2.8	−10.0
63	Tanner McKeeQQB · PHI	12.8	10.5	−2.3
64	Michael WilsonWR · ARI	12.7	10.6	−2.1
65	Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLE	12.6	23.4	+10.8
66	Malik WillisQB · MIA	12.5	26.0	+13.5
67	Baker MayfieldQB · TB	12.4	6.7	−5.7
68	Rhamondre StevensonRB · NE	12.3	22.5	+10.2
69	Germie BernardWR · PIT	12.2	5.7	−6.5
70	Tyler HuntleyQB · BAL	12.2	15.1	+2.9
71	Daniel JonesQB · IND	12.2	3.6	−8.6
72	Carnell TateWR · TEN	12.0	9.9	−2.1
73	Jalen CokerWR · CAR	11.9	1.9	−10.0
74	Woody MarksRB · HOU	11.7	9.1	−2.6
75	Emanuel WilsonRB · SEA	11.6	18.5	+6.9
76	Tony PollardRB · TEN	11.6	36.5	+24.9
77	Travis KelceTE · KC	11.5	8.4	−3.1
78	Jameson WilliamsWR · DET	11.3	26.1	+14.8
79	Braelon AllenRB · NYJ	11.2	19.4	+8.2
80	Dallas GoedertTE · PHI	11.1	9.8	−1.3
81	Josh DownsWR · IND	10.9	3.8	−7.1
82	Rome OdunzeWR · CHI	10.9	10.9	±0.0
83	A.J. BrownWR · NE	10.9	7.8	−3.1
84	Omar Cooper Jr.WR · NYJ	10.8	22.5	+11.7
85	Kyle PittsTE · ATL	10.7	13.2	+2.5
86	Luther Burden IIIWR · CHI	10.7	23.7	+13.0
87	Keenan AllenWR · IND	10.6	6.1	−4.5
88	Tucker KraftTE · GB	10.6	14.8	+4.2
89	Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN	10.5	8.8	−1.7
90	Xavier WorthyWR · KC	10.4	4.1	−6.3
91	Tre TuckerWR · LV	10.4	21.3	+10.9
92	Jordan AddisonWR · MIN	10.3	4.3	−6.0
93	Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TEN	10.3	4.7	−5.6
94	J.K. DobbinsRB · DEN	10.2	8.3	−1.9
95	Michael MayerTE · LV	10.2	6.2	−4.0
96	Malik WashingtonWR · MIA	10.1	6.5	−3.6
97	Juwan JohnsonTE · NO	10.1	1.7	−8.4
98	Tyler AllgeierRB · ARI	9.9	7.9	−2.0
99	Colston LovelandTE · CHI	9.9	19.9	+10.0
100	Denzel BostonWR · CLE	9.9	5.7	−4.2
101	Chris Godwin Jr.WR · TB	9.9	6.7	−3.2
102	RJ HarveyRB · DEN	9.6	14.0	+4.4
103	Cam WardQB · TEN	9.6	5.7	−3.9
104	Caleb DouglasWR · MIA	9.5	21.0	+11.5
105	DeMario DouglasWR · NE	9.4	5.3	−4.1
106	T.J. HockensonTE · MIN	9.2	13.5	+4.3
107	Devaughn VeleWR · NO	9.2	16.4	+7.2
108	Adonai MitchellWR · NYJ	9.2	0.0	−9.2
109	Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLE	9.1	13.1	+4.0
110	Hunter HenryTE · NE	9.1	14.1	+5.0
111	Tyler HigbeeTE · LA	9.0	3.4	−5.6
112	Pierre StrongRB · GB	8.9	0.0	−8.9
113	Dalton SchultzTE · HOU	8.5	9.5	+1.0
114	Alvin KamaraRB · NO	8.5	13.2	+4.7
115	Pat FreiermuthTE · PIT	8.3	4.0	−4.3
116	Mark AndrewsTE · BAL	8.3	5.3	−3.0
117	Jaylin NoelWR · HOU	8.3	1.7	−6.6
118	Darren WallerTE · CAR	8.3	12.0	+3.7
119	MarShawn LloydRB · GB	8.3	5.5	−2.8
120	Makai LemonWR · PHI	8.3	19.7	+11.4
121	Courtland SuttonWR · DEN	8.2	7.5	−0.7
122	Jalon DanielsQB · TB	8.2	-0.3	−8.5
123	Ryan FlournoyWR · DAL	8.1	11.0	+2.9
124	KC ConcepcionWR · CLE	8.0	23.2	+15.2
125	Blake CorumRB · LA	8.0	17.1	+9.1
126	Kendre MillerRB · NO	7.9	5.8	−2.1
127	Bam KnightRB · ARI	7.7	9.3	+1.6
128	Mike GesickiTE · CIN	7.7	7.6	−0.1
129	Jameis WinstonQB · NYG	7.6	6.4	−1.2
130	Cam SkatteboRB · NYG	7.6	19.1	+11.5
131	Greg DulcichTE · MIA	7.6	13.6	+6.0
132	Cooper KuppWR · SEA	7.6	4.0	−3.6
133	Cade OttonTE · TB	7.4	0.0	−7.4
134	Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI	7.4	15.1	+7.7
135	Darnell WashingtonTE · PIT	7.3	7.4	+0.1
136	Samaje PerineRB · CIN	7.3	7.6	+0.3
137	Jahan DotsonWR · ATL	7.2	1.6	−5.6
138	Kendrick BourneWR · ARI	7.1	3.9	−3.2
139	Roschon JohnsonRB · CHI	7.1	1.3	−5.8
140	Jake FergusonTE · DAL	7.0	0.0	−7.0
141	Jordan MasonRB · MIN	7.0	6.8	−0.2
142	Rashid ShaheedWR · SEA	7.0	2.1	−4.9
143	AJ BarnerTE · SEA	7.0	8.6	+1.6
144	Tommy TrembleTE · CAR	6.9	1.8	−5.1
145	Kenyon SadiqTE · NYJ	6.9	1.6	−5.3
146	Darius CooperWR · PHI	6.8	2.7	−4.1
147	Malachi FieldsWR · NYG	6.6	12.3	+5.7
148	George HolaniRB · SEA	6.5	3.3	−3.2
149	Savion WilliamsWR · GB	6.4	8.1	+1.7
150	Xavier HutchinsonWR · HOU	6.3	11.9	+5.6
151	TreVeyon HendersonRB · NE	6.3	4.3	−2.0
152	Ted Hurst IIIWR · TB	6.3	0.0	−6.3
153	Devin SingletaryRB · NYG	6.2	14.5	+8.3
154	Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · NYG	6.2	8.7	+2.5
155	Efton Chism IIIWR · NE	6.2	2.6	−3.6
156	Rico DowdleRB · PIT	6.1	14.6	+8.5
157	Laquon TreadwellWR · IND	6.1	3.9	−2.2
158	Will MalloryTE · IND	6.0	0.0	−6.0
159	Ja'Kobi LaneWR · BAL	5.9	5.5	−0.4
160	Eli RaridonTE · NE	5.9	14.6	+8.7
161	Josh JacobsRB · GB	5.7	20.1	+14.4
162	Jerry JeudyWR · CLE	5.6	6.1	+0.5
163	Evan EngramTE · DEN	5.6	1.2	−4.4
164	Colby ParkinsonTE · LA	5.6	9.8	+4.2
165	Kalif RaymondWR · CHI	5.5	0.0	−5.5
166	Kayshon BoutteWR · HOU	5.4	3.5	−1.9
167	Andrew ArmstrongWR · KC	5.3	1.3	−4.0
168	Isaac TeSlaaWR · DET	5.3	2.0	−3.3
169	Dohnte MeyersWR · CIN	5.3	0.0	−5.3
170	Kenny GainwellRB · TB	5.3	8.8	+3.5
171	Jauan JenningsWR · MIN	5.2	5.4	+0.2
172	Elic AyomanorWR · TEN	5.1	7.4	+2.3
173	Mason TaylorTE · NYJ	5.1	25.2	+20.1
174	Troy FranklinWR · DEN	5.0	0.0	−5.0
175	Justice HillRB · BAL	5.0	6.3	+1.3
176	Kevin Coleman Jr.WR · MIA	5.0	0.0	−5.0
177	Noah FantTE · NO	5.0	3.1	−1.9
178	Brandin CooksWR · SF	4.9	2.3	−2.6
179	Jordan WatkinsWR · SF	4.9	8.6	+3.7
180	Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · HOU	4.8	7.6	+2.8
181	Rashod BatemanWR · BAL	4.8	5.3	+0.5
182	Jonah ColemanRB · DEN	4.8	8.9	+4.1
183	Jalen NailorWR · LV	4.8	3.4	−1.4
184	Chris BellWR · MIA	4.8	5.5	+0.7
185	Konata MumpfieldWR · LA	4.8	2.5	−2.3
186	Tez JohnsonWR · TB	4.8	12.7	+7.9
187	Tim PatrickWR · NYJ	4.8	0.0	−4.8
188	Noah GrayTE · KC	4.7	7.4	+2.7
189	Kyle WilliamsWR · NE	4.7	0.0	−4.7
190	CJ DonaldsonRB · NO	4.7	0.0	−4.7
191	Emmett JohnsonRB · KC	4.6	3.7	−0.9
192	Kaelon BlackRB · SF	4.6	10.9	+6.3
193	Bryce LanceWR · NO	4.5	3.2	−1.3
194	Darnell MooneyWR · NYG	4.5	1.7	−2.8
195	Marvin Mims Jr.WR · DEN	4.4	7.6	+3.2
196	Marquise BrownWR · PHI	4.4	5.0	+0.6
197	Jalen RoyalsWR · KC	4.3	0.0	−4.3
198	Jaylen WrightRB · MIA	4.3	0.8	−3.5
199	Ashton DulinWR · IND	4.2	0.0	−4.2
200	Seth McGowanRB · IND	4.1	5.8	+1.7
201	Gavin BartholomewTE · MIN	3.9	2.7	−1.2
202	Mike Washington Jr.RB · LV	3.9	2.7	−1.2
203	Cole KmetTE · CHI	3.9	5.8	+1.9
204	John Metchie IIIWR · CAR	3.8	4.0	+0.2
205	Elijah HigginsTE · ARI	3.8	4.7	+0.9
206	Corey KinerRB · NE	3.6	1.3	−2.3
207	Will KacmarekTE · MIA	3.4	0.0	−3.4
208	Brycen TremayneWR · CAR	3.4	0.0	−3.4
209	Josh CuevasTE · BAL	3.4	5.5	+2.1
210	Foster MoreauTE · HOU	3.3	0.0	−3.3
211	Tory HortonWR · SEA	3.3	0.0	−3.3
212	Tutu AtwellWR · LA	3.3	0.0	−3.3
213	Kyle JuszczykRB · SF	3.2	10.1	+6.9
214	Jalen BrooksWR · ARI	3.1	4.5	+1.4
215	Zachariah BranchWR · ATL	3.1	2.7	−0.4
216	Mitchell EvansTE · CAR	3.1	5.9	+2.8
217	Brevyn Spann-FordTE · DAL	3.0	3.1	+0.1
218	Devontez WalkerWR · BAL	3.0	0.0	−3.0
219	Tai FeltonWR · MIN	3.0	0.0	−3.0
220	Jacob CowingWR · SF	2.8	7.8	+5.0
221	Sean TuckerRB · TB	2.8	11.2	+8.4
222	Cody WhiteWR · LV	2.8	1.4	−1.4
223	Daniel BellingerTE · TEN	2.8	1.4	−1.4
224	Deion BurksWR · IND	2.7	2.1	−0.6
225	Brock WrightTE · DET	2.7	0.0	−2.7
226	Gunnar HelmTE · TEN	2.7	5.4	+2.7
227	Dylan SampsonRB · CLE	2.6	10.7	+8.1
228	Brandon SmithWR · PIT	2.6	4.4	+1.8
229	Isaiah DavisRB · NYJ	2.6	8.4	+5.8
230	Johnny MundtTE · PHI	2.5	0.0	−2.5
231	Michael CarterRB · TEN	2.5	2.4	−0.1
232	Erick AllTE · CIN	2.5	5.6	+3.1
233	Isaiah WilliamsWR · NYJ	2.4	0.0	−2.4
234	Mitchell TinsleyWR · CIN	2.4	1.7	−0.7
235	Davis AllenTE · LA	2.4	18.0	+15.6
236	Chimere DikeWR · TEN	2.4	0.0	−2.4
237	Sione VakiRB · DET	2.3	0.5	−1.8
238	Mo Alie-CoxTE · IND	2.3	0.0	−2.3
239	Tyler GoodsonRB · DAL	2.2	3.8	+1.6
240	Jordan WhittingtonWR · LA	2.2	0.0	−2.2
241	Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · DEN	2.2	1.5	−0.7
242	Austin HooperTE · ATL	2.1	4.1	+2.0
243	Jared WayneWR · MIA	2.1	0.0	−2.1
244	Myles PriceWR · MIN	2.1	0.0	−2.1
245	Elijah MooreWR · PHI	2.1	3.6	+1.5
246	Ben YurosekTE · MIN	2.1	0.0	−2.1
247	Nate AdkinsTE · DEN	2.1	0.0	−2.1
248	Drew SampleTE · CIN	2.1	10.4	+8.3
249	Adam TrautmanTE · DEN	2.1	0.0	−2.1
250	Barion BrownWR · NO	2.0	8.7	+6.7
251	Matthew HibnerTE · BAL	2.0	0.0	−2.0
252	Reggie VirgilWR · ARI	2.0	0.0	−2.0
253	Velus Jones Jr.RB · SEA	2.0	0.8	−1.2
254	Elijah MitchellRB · PHI	1.9	6.4	+4.5
255	Cyrus AllenWR · KC	1.9	2.8	+0.9
256	Christian KirkWR · SF	1.9	0.0	−1.9
257	Luke FarrellTE · SF	1.8	2.4	+0.6
258	Isaiah BondWR · CLE	1.8	0.0	−1.8
259	David SillsWR · TB	1.7	0.0	−1.7
260	Khalil HerbertRB · ATL	1.7	3.8	+2.1
261	Jonnu SmithTE · GB	1.7	1.9	+0.2
262	Trevor EtienneRB · CAR	1.7	4.5	+2.8
263	CJ DanielsWR · LA	1.7	0.0	−1.7
264	Zavion ThomasWR · CHI	1.6	0.0	−1.6
265	Oscar DelpTE · NO	1.5	1.2	−0.3
266	Tylan WallaceWR · CLE	1.5	0.0	−1.5
267	Brevin JordanTE · HOU	1.5	0.0	−1.5
268	Teagan QuitorianoTE · ARI	1.4	0.0	−1.4
269	Jelani WoodsTE · NYJ	1.4	0.9	−0.5
270	J. Michael SturdivantWR · GB	1.4	0.0	−1.4
271	Ian ThomasTE · LV	1.4	1.8	+0.4
272	LaJohntay WesterWR · BAL	1.4	2.5	+1.1
273	Charlie WoernerTE · ATL	1.4	2.2	+0.8
274	Dareke YoungWR · LV	1.4	0.0	−1.4
275	Jeremy RuckertTE · NYJ	1.4	0.0	−1.4
276	Bo MeltonWR · GB	1.3	1.4	+0.1
277	Hunter LuepkeRB · DAL	1.3	0.3	−1.0
278	Blake WhiteheartTE · CLE	1.3	0.0	−1.3
279	Jonathan MingoWR · DAL	1.3	0.0	−1.3
280	Eric SaubertTE · SEA	1.3	2.7	+1.4
281	Cedric TillmanWR · NO	1.3	0.0	−1.3
282	Mark RedmanTE · GB	1.2	0.0	−1.2
283	Sam RoushTE · CHI	1.2	0.0	−1.2
284	DJ HermanRB · MIA	1.2	0.0	−1.2
285	Jordan JamesRB · SF	1.2	2.7	+1.5
286	Dare OgunbowaleRB · HOU	1.2	0.0	−1.2
287	Tank DellWR · HOU	1.2	5.5	+4.3
288	Malik BensonWR · LV	1.2	0.0	−1.2
289	Colbie YoungWR · CIN	1.2	0.0	−1.2
290	Brandon JohnsonWR · PIT	1.1	0.0	−1.1
291	Andrew OgletreeTE · IND	1.1	3.2	+2.1
292	Bauer SharpTE · TB	1.1	0.0	−1.1
293	Grant CalcaterraTE · PHI	1.1	0.0	−1.1
294	Malachi CorleyWR · CLE	1.0	0.0	−1.0
295	Luke SchoonmakerTE · DAL	1.0	0.0	−1.0
296	Jake BriningstoolTE · KC	1.0	0.0	−1.0
297	DeeJay DallasRB · MIN	1.0	0.0	−1.0
298	Jalin HyattWR · NYG	1.0	0.0	−1.0
299	Pharaoh BrownTE · IND	1.0	0.0	−1.0
300	Connor HeywardRB · LV	1.0	2.3	+1.3
301	Chris BlairWR · ATL	0.9	0.0	−0.9
302	Jahdae WalkerWR · CHI	0.9	0.0	−0.9
303	Thomas Fidone IITE · NYG	0.9	3.9	+3.0
304	Cade StoverTE · HOU	0.9	2.9	+2.0
305	Eli StowersTE · PHI	0.9	0.0	−0.9
306	Justin WatsonWR · KC	0.9	1.7	+0.8
307	Lew Nichols IIIRB · PIT	0.8	0.0	−0.8
308	Payne DurhamTE · TB	0.8	0.0	−0.8
309	David MooreWR · CAR	0.8	-2.0	−2.8
310	Josh WhyleTE · GB	0.7	0.0	−0.7
311	Michael BurtonRB · CLE	0.7	0.0	−0.7
312	Alex BachmanWR · LA	0.7	0.0	−0.7
313	Kameron JohnsonWR · TB	0.7	0.0	−0.7
314	Simi FehokoWR · ARI	0.7	0.0	−0.7
315	Anthony Tyus IIIRB · CAR	0.7	8.3	+7.6
316	Max BredesonRB · MIN	0.7	0.0	−0.7
317	Nick VannettTE · BAL	0.7	0.0	−0.7
318	Cameron LatuTE · NE	0.6	0.0	−0.6
319	Brady RussellRB · SEA	0.6	0.0	−0.6
320	Tay MartinWR · DET	0.6	0.0	−0.6
321	Adam PrenticeRB · DEN	0.6	0.0	−0.6
322	Jared WileyTE · KC	0.6	0.0	−0.6
323	Robert TonyanTE · PIT	0.6	0.0	−0.6
324	Kenny PickettQB · CAR	0.6	3.4	+2.8
325	Patrick RicardRB · NYG	0.6	0.0	−0.6
326	Riley NowakowskiRB · PIT	0.6	0.0	−0.6
327	Brayden WillisTE · SF	0.5	0.0	−0.5
328	Tahj BrooksRB · CIN	0.5	0.6	+0.1
329	Rasheen AliRB · BAL	0.5	1.9	+1.4
330	Jack EndriesTE · CIN	0.5	0.0	−0.5
331	Tyler ConklinTE · DET	0.4	1.4	+1.0
332	Andrew BeckRB · NYJ	0.4	-0.1	−0.5
333	Malik McClainWR · NYJ	0.4	0.0	−0.4
334	Nick MuseTE · ATL	0.4	8.2	+7.8
335	Seydou TraoreTE · MIA	0.3	0.0	−0.3
336	Joe FlaccoQB · CIN	0.3	0.0	−0.3
337	Chris ManhertzTE · NYG	0.3	0.0	−0.3
338	David Martin-RobinsonTE · TEN	0.3	0.0	−0.3
339	Nick KallerupTE · SEA	0.2	0.0	−0.2
340	Ko KieftTE · TB	0.2	0.0	−0.2
341	Feleipe FranksTE · CAR	0.2	0.0	−0.2

Week 6

338 players scored · 91 projected for 10+ PPR

Week 6 rankings vs results, every player →

For all 91 players we projected for 10+ PPR points, our projection missed by 5.5 points on a typical player. On the 91 of them with a season average to compare, simply using that average would have missed by 6.1 and ours by 5.6: our projections were 9% closer.

This week shows the model run before kickoff, which can differ a little from the numbers readers saw.

Closer than the season average

5.6 vs 6.1 points, on the 91 players with a season average to compare

Within 7 points

64 of 91

within 5: 47 of 91

Did the ranking work?

Yes

Players we ranked higher scored 5.1 more points on average (15.9 vs 10.8).

Usage: targets

2.0

average miss in targets per player

Average miss by position

QB5.1 points · 26 players

RB6.7 points · 25 players

TE4.7 points · 12 players

WR5.1 points · 28 players

Scored more than projected

Germie Bernard projected 10.6, scored 25.7
Bhayshul Tuten projected 12.1, scored 24.7
Isaiah Likely projected 11.5, scored 23.9
Tyler Shough projected 14.7, scored 27.0
Malik Nabers projected 16.3, scored 28.5

Scored less than projected

Cam Skattebo projected 13.5, scored 0.0
Bijan Robinson projected 20.0, scored 7.3
Derrick Henry projected 16.9, scored 5.0
Bo Nix projected 15.4, scored 4.5
Juwan Johnson projected 10.6, scored 0.0

Every player, Week 6 (338)

#	Player	Projected PPRProj	Scored PPRScored	DifferenceDiff
1	Josh AllenQB · BUF	21.6	18.3	−3.3
2	Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL	20.0	7.3	−12.7
3	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA	19.4	25.4	+6.0
4	Christian McCaffreyRB · SF	19.3	30.7	+11.4
5	Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT	18.7	9.8	−8.9
6	Drake MayeQB · NE	17.9	23.8	+5.9
7	Brock PurdyQB · SF	17.9	17.4	−0.5
8	Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC	17.7	27.9	+10.2
9	James CookRB · BUF	17.6	24.3	+6.7
10	Chuba HubbardRB · CAR	17.4	19.1	+1.7
11	Matthew StaffordQB · LA	17.3	16.9	−0.4
12	Dak PrescottQB · DAL	16.9	11.0	−5.9
13	Kyren WilliamsRB · LA	16.9	9.7	−7.2
14	Derrick HenryRB · BAL	16.9	5.0	−11.9
15	Puka NacuaWR · LA	16.9	14.0	−2.9
16	Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ	16.7	8.4	−8.3
17	Jonathan TaylorRB · IND	16.6	21.1	+4.5
18	Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX	16.6	27.3	+10.7
19	Jordan LoveQB · GB	16.6	20.2	+3.6
20	Jayden DanielsQB · WAS	16.5	21.0	+4.5
21	Malik NabersWR · NYG	16.3	28.5	+12.2
22	Christian WatsonWR · GB	16.2	9.4	−6.8
23	Deshaun WatsonQB · CLE	16.1	9.5	−6.6
24	CeeDee LambWR · DAL	16.1	16.0	−0.1
25	Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL	16.1	13.0	−3.1
26	C.J. StroudQB · HOU	15.6	23.0	+7.4
27	Brock BowersTE · LV	15.6	11.0	−4.6
28	Justin HerbertQB · LAC	15.5	8.8	−6.7
29	Bo NixQB · DEN	15.4	4.5	−10.9
30	Trey McBrideTE · ARI	15.3	12.3	−3.0
31	Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI	15.2	6.9	−8.3
32	Patrick MahomesQB · KC	15.1	10.5	−4.6
33	Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR	15.1	14.6	−0.5
34	Braelon AllenRB · NYJ	14.9	12.4	−2.5
35	DeVonta SmithWR · PHI	14.8	20.5	+5.7
36	Sam DarnoldQB · SEA	14.7	11.0	−3.7
37	Bucky IrvingRB · TB	14.7	6.9	−7.8
38	Tyler ShoughQB · NO	14.7	27.0	+12.3
39	Kirk CousinsQB · LV	14.3	18.5	+4.2
40	Aaron RodgersQB · PIT	14.2	16.0	+1.8
41	Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI	14.2	16.5	+2.3
42	Dameon PierceRB · PHI	14.1	15.0	+0.9
43	Drake LondonWR · ATL	14.1	12.2	−1.9
44	Bryce YoungQB · CAR	14.0	19.8	+5.8
45	Daniel JonesQB · IND	14.0	13.8	−0.2
46	Ashton JeantyRB · LV	13.7	15.8	+2.1
47	Nico CollinsWR · HOU	13.5	10.9	−2.6
48	Cam SkatteboRB · NYG	13.5	0.0	−13.5
49	Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL	13.4	23.1	+9.7
50	Parker WashingtonWR · JAX	13.3	10.4	−2.9
51	D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI	13.3	23.0	+9.7
52	George PickensWR · DAL	13.2	13.3	+0.1
53	Rhamondre StevensonRB · NE	13.0	3.6	−9.4
54	Geno SmithQB · NYJ	12.6	12.0	−0.6
55	George KittleTE · SF	12.5	17.9	+5.4
56	Davante AdamsWR · LA	12.3	6.9	−5.4
57	Emanuel WilsonRB · SEA	12.2	5.2	−7.0
58	Emeka EgbukaQWR · TB	12.2	17.8	+5.6
59	Bhayshul TutenRB · JAX	12.1	24.7	+12.6
60	Tony PollardRB · TEN	11.9	7.6	−4.3
61	Jameis WinstonQB · NYG	11.9	6.5	−5.4
62	Zay FlowersWR · BAL	11.8	12.7	+0.9
63	Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN	11.7	6.4	−5.3
64	Woody MarksRB · HOU	11.5	10.1	−1.4
65	Michael WilsonWR · ARI	11.5	7.2	−4.3
66	Travis KelceTE · KC	11.5	9.3	−2.2
67	Isaiah LikelyTE · NYG	11.5	23.9	+12.4
68	Matthew GoldenWR · GB	11.3	22.4	+11.1
69	Rachaad WhiteRB · WAS	11.3	15.7	+4.4
70	Brenton StrangeTE · JAX	11.2	9.4	−1.8
71	Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLE	11.1	1.9	−9.2
72	Cam WardQB · TEN	11.1	6.8	−4.3
73	Tyler HuntleyQB · BAL	11.1	13.4	+2.3
74	Josh DownsWR · IND	10.9	8.7	−2.2
75	Tucker KraftTE · GB	10.8	8.7	−2.1
76	J.K. DobbinsRB · DEN	10.8	13.6	+2.8
77	Dallas GoedertTE · PHI	10.7	12.1	+1.4
78	Rome OdunzeWR · CHI	10.6	6.9	−3.7
79	Germie BernardWR · PIT	10.6	25.7	+15.1
80	MarShawn LloydRB · GB	10.6	1.0	−9.6
81	Juwan JohnsonTE · NO	10.6	0.0	−10.6
82	Terry McLaurinWR · WAS	10.5	3.7	−6.8
83	Dalton KincaidTE · BUF	10.4	10.8	+0.4
84	Carnell TateWR · TEN	10.3	19.0	+8.7
85	Jalen CokerWR · CAR	10.3	15.7	+5.4
86	Dalton SchultzTE · HOU	10.3	7.3	−3.0
87	Denzel BostonWR · CLE	10.2	2.5	−7.7
88	Romeo DoubsWR · NE	10.2	11.2	+1.0
89	Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TEN	10.1	5.2	−4.9
90	Chris OlaveWR · NO	10.1	14.3	+4.2
91	Omarion HamptonRB · LAC	10.1	7.9	−2.2
92	Cade OttonTE · TB	10.0	1.4	−8.6
93	RJ HarveyRB · DEN	9.7	14.6	+4.9
94	Chris Godwin Jr.WR · TB	9.7	7.7	−2.0
95	Courtland SuttonWR · DEN	9.6	3.9	−5.7
96	Tre TuckerWR · LV	9.6	26.7	+17.1
97	Luther Burden IIIWR · CHI	9.5	17.5	+8.0
98	Jakobi MeyersWR · JAX	9.5	13.3	+3.8
99	Mark AndrewsTE · BAL	9.4	1.4	−8.0
100	Jalon DanielsQB · TB	9.4	11.2	+1.8
101	Xavier WorthyWR · KC	9.2	14.3	+5.1
102	Tyler AllgeierRB · ARI	9.1	5.8	−3.3
103	Jake FergusonTE · DAL	9.1	3.3	−5.8
104	Colston LovelandTE · CHI	9.1	18.5	+9.4
105	Kyle PittsTE · ATL	9.0	23.0	+14.0
106	Khalil ShakirWR · BUF	8.8	13.4	+4.6
107	AJ BarnerTE · SEA	8.8	4.6	−4.2
108	Devaughn VeleWR · NO	8.8	7.2	−1.6
109	Darren WallerTE · CAR	8.8	0.0	−8.8
110	Hunter HenryTE · NE	8.7	14.8	+6.1
111	Keenan AllenWR · IND	8.6	16.2	+7.6
112	Tyler HigbeeTE · LA	8.4	4.2	−4.2
113	Dontayvion WicksWR · PHI	8.4	4.4	−4.0
114	DeMario DouglasWR · NE	8.2	19.6	+11.4
115	Quentin JohnstonWR · LAC	8.0	6.7	−1.3
116	Rico DowdleRB · PIT	8.0	7.9	−0.1
117	Chig OkonkwoTE · WAS	8.0	13.9	+5.9
118	Kendre MillerRB · NO	7.9	9.0	+1.1
119	Kenyon SadiqTE · NYJ	7.8	2.2	−5.6
120	Makai LemonWR · PHI	7.7	4.9	−2.8
121	Pat FreiermuthTE · PIT	7.5	3.1	−4.4
122	Michael MayerTE · LV	7.5	16.5	+9.0
123	Oronde Gadsden IITE · LAC	7.5	4.7	−2.8
124	A.J. BrownWR · NE	7.3	5.7	−1.6
125	Efton Chism IIIWR · NE	7.2	0.0	−7.2
126	DK MetcalfWR · PIT	7.1	20.3	+13.2
127	Stefon DiggsWR · WAS	7.0	16.4	+9.4
128	Tim PatrickWR · NYJ	7.0	2.5	−4.5
129	Blake CorumRB · LA	7.0	14.0	+7.0
130	Pierre StrongRB · GB	6.9	11.7	+4.8
131	Xavier HutchinsonWR · HOU	6.9	3.0	−3.9
132	Antonio WilliamsWR · WAS	6.8	8.0	+1.2
133	Rashod BatemanWR · BAL	6.8	0.0	−6.8
134	Keon ColemanWR · BUF	6.8	15.9	+9.1
135	George HolaniRB · SEA	6.7	8.0	+1.3
136	Kayshon BoutteWR · HOU	6.6	3.6	−3.0
137	Ladd McConkeyWR · LAC	6.6	2.7	−3.9
138	Tyjae SpearsRB · TEN	6.6	1.8	−4.8
139	Jaylin NoelWR · HOU	6.6	20.7	+14.1
140	Cooper KuppWR · SEA	6.6	10.0	+3.4
141	Ryan FlournoyWR · DAL	6.5	17.0	+10.5
142	Keaton MitchellRB · LAC	6.4	0.4	−6.0
143	Alvin KamaraRB · NO	6.3	14.9	+8.6
144	Kalif RaymondWR · CHI	6.3	3.8	−2.5
145	Darnell MooneyWR · NYG	6.3	2.0	−4.3
146	Mike EvansWR · SF	6.2	12.4	+6.2
147	Rashid ShaheedWR · SEA	6.2	11.8	+5.6
148	Kenny GainwellRB · TB	6.2	3.4	−2.8
149	Brian RobinsonRB · ATL	6.2	3.0	−3.2
150	Malachi FieldsWR · NYG	6.0	3.9	−2.1
151	KC ConcepcionWR · CLE	5.9	7.9	+2.0
152	Isaiah WilliamsWR · NYJ	5.9	0.4	−5.5
153	Kendrick BourneWR · ARI	5.9	9.7	+3.8
154	Austin EkelerRB · WAS	5.8	2.7	−3.1
155	Eli RaridonTE · NE	5.8	2.1	−3.7
156	Brycen TremayneWR · CAR	5.6	0.0	−5.6
157	Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · HOU	5.6	6.4	+0.8
158	Jerry JeudyWR · CLE	5.6	10.9	+5.3
159	Devin SingletaryRB · NYG	5.4	4.3	−1.1
160	Laquon TreadwellWR · IND	5.4	4.1	−1.3
161	Darnell WashingtonTE · PIT	5.3	12.5	+7.2
162	Brian Thomas Jr.WR · JAX	5.3	0.0	−5.3
163	Mike Washington Jr.RB · LV	5.2	6.0	+0.8
164	Jahan DotsonWR · ATL	5.1	17.7	+12.6
165	Kimani VidalRB · LAC	5.1	7.0	+1.9
166	Treylon BurksWR · WAS	5.1	10.6	+5.5
167	Emmett JohnsonRB · KC	5.1	4.4	−0.7
168	Evan EngramTE · DEN	5.0	3.3	−1.7
169	CJ DonaldsonRB · NO	4.9	1.9	−3.0
170	Darius CooperWR · PHI	4.9	1.9	−3.0
171	Noah FantTE · NO	4.9	0.0	−4.9
172	Gunnar HelmTE · TEN	4.9	0.0	−4.9
173	Troy FranklinWR · DEN	4.8	1.2	−3.6
174	Colby ParkinsonTE · LA	4.8	14.1	+9.3
175	Seth McGowanRB · IND	4.7	2.7	−2.0
176	Kaleb JohnsonRB · GB	4.7	-0.2	−4.9
177	Mason TaylorTE · NYJ	4.7	7.3	+2.6
178	J.J. McCarthyQB · NYG	4.7	16.3	+11.6
179	Reggie VirgilWR · ARI	4.7	0.0	−4.7
180	Charlie KolarTE · LAC	4.7	5.0	+0.3
181	Justice HillRB · BAL	4.6	3.9	−0.7
182	Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · JAX	4.5	5.5	+1.0
183	Tommy TrembleTE · CAR	4.5	20.6	+16.1
184	Najee HarrisRB · NYG	4.5	0.2	−4.3
185	Jalen NailorWR · LV	4.5	1.9	−2.6
186	Kyle WilliamsWR · NE	4.2	2.2	−2.0
187	Roschon JohnsonRB · CHI	4.2	14.5	+10.3
188	Tez JohnsonWR · TB	4.2	2.7	−1.5
189	TreVeyon HendersonRB · NE	4.2	3.0	−1.2
190	Josh CameronWR · JAX	4.2	0.0	−4.2
191	Elic AyomanorWR · TEN	4.2	1.3	−2.9
192	Jalen RoyalsWR · KC	4.1	4.4	+0.3
193	John Metchie IIIWR · CAR	4.1	4.4	+0.3
194	Bam KnightRB · ARI	4.1	11.8	+7.7
195	Theo Wease Jr.WR · LAC	4.0	4.1	+0.1
196	Noah GrayTE · KC	3.9	8.3	+4.4
197	Skyler BellWR · BUF	3.9	0.0	−3.9
198	Isaiah DavisRB · NYJ	3.8	3.6	−0.2
199	Kaelon BlackRB · SF	3.8	4.7	+0.9
200	Dawson KnoxTE · BUF	3.8	1.0	−2.8
201	Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · NYG	3.7	18.5	+14.8
202	Marvin Mims Jr.WR · DEN	3.6	3.3	−0.3
203	Ted Hurst IIIWR · TB	3.6	7.0	+3.4
204	Dyami BrownWR · WAS	3.5	1.6	−1.9
205	Ty JohnsonRB · BUF	3.5	4.7	+1.2
206	Isaiah BondWR · CLE	3.5	0.0	−3.5
207	Cole KmetTE · CHI	3.5	2.3	−1.2
208	Calvin RidleyWR · TEN	3.4	0.0	−3.4
209	Foster MoreauTE · HOU	3.4	14.7	+11.3
210	Jacob CowingWR · SF	3.4	0.0	−3.4
211	Ja'Kobi LaneWR · BAL	3.4	8.0	+4.6
212	Corey KinerRB · NE	3.3	5.7	+2.4
213	Devontez WalkerWR · BAL	3.2	0.0	−3.2
214	Bryce LanceWR · NO	3.2	8.9	+5.7
215	Davis AllenTE · LA	3.2	0.0	−3.2
216	Elijah HigginsTE · ARI	3.2	5.8	+2.6
217	Cody WhiteWR · LV	3.2	0.0	−3.2
218	Mitchell EvansTE · CAR	3.1	0.1	−3.0
219	Bo MeltonWR · GB	3.0	0.0	−3.0
220	Teagan QuitorianoTE · ARI	2.9	0.0	−2.9
221	Brandin CooksWR · SF	2.9	2.3	−0.6
222	Nate BoerkircherTE · JAX	2.9	8.8	+5.9
223	Jordan WatkinsWR · SF	2.7	3.2	+0.5
224	Daniel BellingerTE · TEN	2.7	0.0	−2.7
225	Nate AdkinsTE · DEN	2.6	0.0	−2.6
226	Olamide ZaccheausWR · ATL	2.6	0.0	−2.6
227	Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · DEN	2.5	0.0	−2.5
228	Zachariah BranchWR · ATL	2.5	0.9	−1.6
229	Jeremy RuckertTE · NYJ	2.5	0.0	−2.5
230	Johnny MundtTE · PHI	2.5	1.4	−1.1
231	Adam TrautmanTE · DEN	2.4	0.0	−2.4
232	Kyle JuszczykRB · SF	2.3	2.0	−0.3
233	Audric EstiméRB · NO	2.3	7.9	+5.6
234	Tyler BadieRB · DEN	2.3	0.6	−1.7
235	Josh PalmerWR · BUF	2.3	4.7	+2.4
236	Jordan WhittingtonWR · LA	2.2	0.0	−2.2
237	Jonnu SmithTE · GB	2.2	0.0	−2.2
238	Jalen BrooksWR · ARI	2.2	5.0	+2.8
239	Jawhar JordanRB · HOU	2.2	12.0	+9.8
240	Jaleel McLaughlinRB · CLE	2.2	9.5	+7.3
241	Tory HortonWR · SEA	2.2	2.3	+0.1
242	Chimere DikeWR · TEN	2.1	0.0	−2.1
243	Jeremy McNicholsRB · WAS	2.1	1.3	−0.8
244	J. Michael SturdivantWR · GB	2.1	0.0	−2.1
245	Mo Alie-CoxTE · IND	2.0	7.1	+5.1
246	Travis HunterWR · JAX	2.0	15.9	+13.9
247	Jelani WoodsTE · NYJ	2.0	1.9	−0.1
248	Konata MumpfieldWR · LA	2.0	3.5	+1.5
249	Chris BlairWR · ATL	1.9	0.0	−1.9
250	Austin HooperTE · ATL	1.9	1.6	−0.3
251	Tyler GoodsonRB · DAL	1.9	1.9	±0.0
252	Brandon SmithWR · PIT	1.9	0.0	−1.9
253	Luke FarrellTE · SF	1.9	0.0	−1.9
254	Brandon JohnsonWR · PIT	1.9	0.0	−1.9
255	Josh CuevasTE · BAL	1.9	14.4	+12.5
256	Ray DavisRB · BUF	1.9	1.9	±0.0
257	Carson SteeleRB · PHI	1.8	1.4	−0.4
258	Dylan LaubeRB · LV	1.8	0.9	−0.9
259	Omar Cooper Jr.WR · NYJ	1.8	22.3	+20.5
260	Ben SinnottTE · WAS	1.8	0.0	−1.8
261	Elijah ArroyoTE · SEA	1.7	0.0	−1.7
262	John BatesTE · WAS	1.7	1.4	−0.3
263	Malik BensonWR · LV	1.7	0.0	−1.7
264	Deion BurksWR · IND	1.7	6.8	+5.1
265	Zavion ThomasWR · CHI	1.7	5.5	+3.8
266	Tylan WallaceWR · CLE	1.7	2.2	+0.5
267	Dareke YoungWR · LV	1.7	0.0	−1.7
268	Charlie WoernerTE · ATL	1.7	0.0	−1.7
269	Jackson HawesTE · BUF	1.6	0.0	−1.6
270	Justin WatsonWR · KC	1.6	0.0	−1.6
271	Trevor EtienneRB · CAR	1.6	-0.1	−1.7
272	Jonathan MingoWR · DAL	1.6	0.0	−1.6
273	Tanner McKeeQQB · PHI	1.6	12.6	+11.0
274	Brevyn Spann-FordTE · DAL	1.6	7.5	+5.9
275	Ian ThomasTE · LV	1.5	0.0	−1.5
276	Sam RoushTE · CHI	1.5	0.0	−1.5
277	Andrew ArmstrongWR · KC	1.5	2.3	+0.8
278	Cyrus AllenWR · KC	1.4	4.7	+3.3
279	Mark RedmanTE · GB	1.4	0.0	−1.4
280	Spencer RattlerQB · NO	1.4	0.0	−1.4
281	Hunter LuepkeRB · DAL	1.4	3.9	+2.5
282	Malachi CorleyWR · CLE	1.4	0.0	−1.4
283	Andrew OgletreeTE · IND	1.3	0.0	−1.3
284	Brevin JordanTE · HOU	1.3	0.9	−0.4
285	LeQuint Allen Jr.RB · JAX	1.3	0.1	−1.2
286	Derius DavisWR · LAC	1.3	0.4	−0.9
287	Elijah MooreWR · PHI	1.3	1.4	+0.1
288	Jake BriningstoolTE · KC	1.3	0.0	−1.3
289	Andrew BeckRB · NYJ	1.2	0.0	−1.2
290	Oscar DelpTE · NO	1.2	3.0	+1.8
291	Luke SchoonmakerTE · DAL	1.2	0.0	−1.2
292	Hayden RucciTE · LAC	1.1	0.0	−1.1
293	Eric SaubertTE · SEA	1.1	0.0	−1.1
294	Cade StoverTE · HOU	1.0	0.5	−0.5
295	Anthony Tyus IIIRB · CAR	1.0	0.0	−1.0
296	LaJohntay WesterWR · BAL	1.0	0.0	−1.0
297	Jahdae WalkerWR · CHI	1.0	0.0	−1.0
298	Payne DurhamTE · TB	1.0	0.0	−1.0
299	Cedric TillmanWR · NO	0.9	0.0	−0.9
300	Adam PrenticeRB · DEN	0.9	0.0	−0.9
301	Connor HeywardRB · LV	0.9	0.0	−0.9
302	Savion WilliamsWR · GB	0.8	8.1	+7.3
303	Blake WhiteheartTE · CLE	0.8	1.8	+1.0
304	Colson YankoffTE · WAS	0.8	0.0	−0.8
305	Brady RussellRB · SEA	0.7	0.0	−0.7
306	Treyton WelchTE · NO	0.7	0.0	−0.7
307	Barion BrownWR · NO	0.7	1.5	+0.8
308	Velus Jones Jr.RB · SEA	0.7	2.9	+2.2
309	Riley NowakowskiRB · PIT	0.7	0.0	−0.7
310	Anthony GouldWR · IND	0.7	0.0	−0.7
311	Will MalloryTE · IND	0.6	4.0	+3.4
312	Robert TonyanTE · PIT	0.6	0.0	−0.6
313	KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR · LAC	0.6	6.2	+5.6
314	Michael BurtonRB · CLE	0.6	0.2	−0.4
315	Nikko RemigioWR · KC	0.6	-2.0	−2.6
316	Brayden WillisTE · SF	0.6	0.0	−0.6
317	David MooreWR · CAR	0.6	3.7	+3.1
318	Patrick RicardRB · NYG	0.6	0.0	−0.6
319	Josh WhyleTE · GB	0.6	0.0	−0.6
320	Luke McCaffreyWR · WAS	0.5	0.0	−0.5
321	Nick MuseTE · ATL	0.5	0.0	−0.5
322	Quintin MorrisTE · JAX	0.5	0.0	−0.5
323	Simi FehokoWR · ARI	0.4	0.0	−0.4
324	Pharaoh BrownTE · IND	0.4	1.7	+1.3
325	Nick VannettTE · BAL	0.4	0.0	−0.4
326	Chris ManhertzTE · NYG	0.4	0.0	−0.4
327	Cameron LatuTE · NE	0.4	0.0	−0.4
328	Malik TurnerWR · SF	0.4	0.0	−0.4
329	Tanner KoziolTE · JAX	0.4	0.0	−0.4
330	Charlie JonesWR · NYG	0.4	6.6	+6.2
331	Bauer SharpTE · TB	0.4	3.1	+2.7
332	Scott MatlockRB · LAC	0.4	0.0	−0.4
333	Thomas Fidone IITE · NYG	0.4	0.0	−0.4
334	E.J. JenkinsTE · ATL	0.4	0.0	−0.4
335	Keleki LatuTE · BUF	0.3	0.0	−0.3
336	Nick KallerupTE · SEA	0.3	0.0	−0.3
337	David Martin-RobinsonTE · TEN	0.3	0.0	−0.3
338	Feleipe FranksTE · CAR	0.2	0.0	−0.2

Week 5

367 players scored · 95 projected for 10+ PPR

Week 5 rankings vs results, every player →

For all 95 players we projected for 10+ PPR points, our projection missed by 7.4 points on a typical player. On the 96 of them with a season average to compare, simply using that average would have missed by 8.1 and ours by 7.4: our projections were 9% closer.

This week shows the model run before kickoff, which can differ a little from the numbers readers saw.

Closer than the season average

7.4 vs 8.1 points, on the 96 players with a season average to compare

Within 7 points

56 of 95

within 5: 34 of 95

Did the ranking work?

Yes

Players we ranked higher scored 5.9 more points on average (18.8 vs 12.9).

Usage: targets

1.8

average miss in targets per player

Average miss by position

QB7.6 points · 26 players

RB6.3 points · 25 players

TE7.0 points · 10 players

WR8.2 points · 34 players

Scored more than projected

Drake Maye projected 16.8, scored 39.5
Jaylen Warren projected 14.9, scored 36.8
Christian Watson projected 11.9, scored 32.3
Puka Nacua projected 18.6, scored 37.7
Jayden Daniels projected 13.4, scored 32.3

Scored less than projected

Tyler Shough projected 14.7, scored -0.2
CeeDee Lamb projected 17.4, scored 2.9
Carnell Tate projected 12.9, scored 1.6
Oronde Gadsden II projected 10.4, scored 0.0
Harold Fannin Jr. projected 11.7, scored 1.4

Every player, Week 5 (367)

#	Player	Projected PPRProj	Scored PPRScored	DifferenceDiff
1	Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL	21.8	15.8	−6.0
2	Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET	20.9	37.7	+16.8
3	Josh AllenQB · BUF	19.5	30.5	+11.0
4	Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET	19.4	12.9	−6.5
5	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA	19.0	22.8	+3.8
6	Kyren WilliamsRB · LA	18.9	19.6	+0.7
7	Christian McCaffreyRB · SF	18.7	17.3	−1.4
8	Puka NacuaWR · LA	18.6	37.7	+19.1
9	Brock PurdyQB · SF	18.4	16.2	−2.2
10	Jared GoffQB · DET	18.3	28.9	+10.6
11	Matthew StaffordQB · LA	17.5	27.3	+9.8
12	Joe BurrowQB · CIN	17.5	24.6	+7.1
13	CeeDee LambWR · DAL	17.4	2.9	−14.5
14	James CookRB · BUF	17.2	22.8	+5.6
15	Drake MayeQB · NE	16.8	39.5	+22.7
16	Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX	16.7	21.7	+5.0
17	Dak PrescottQB · DAL	16.6	12.6	−4.0
18	Derrick HenryRB · BAL	16.5	21.0	+4.5
19	Chris OlaveWR · NO	16.2	8.6	−7.6
20	Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL	16.1	14.2	−1.9
21	Jordan LoveQB · GB	16.1	25.3	+9.2
22	Jalen HurtsQB · PHI	16.0	13.0	−3.0
23	Jonathan TaylorRB · IND	15.8	11.2	−4.6
24	Tyler WarrenTE · IND	15.2	21.4	+6.2
25	Braelon AllenRB · NYJ	15.1	18.6	+3.5
26	Chase BrownRB · CIN	15.1	7.0	−8.1
27	Deshaun WatsonQB · CLE	15.0	12.2	−2.8
28	Aaron RodgersQB · PIT	14.9	22.0	+7.1
29	Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT	14.9	36.8	+21.9
30	Bo NixQB · DEN	14.7	7.9	−6.8
31	Tyler ShoughQB · NO	14.7	-0.2	−14.9
32	George KittleTE · SF	14.6	7.4	−7.2
33	C.J. StroudQB · HOU	14.6	20.9	+6.3
34	Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN	14.4	19.7	+5.3
35	Kirk CousinsQB · LV	14.3	13.7	−0.6
36	Drake LondonWR · ATL	14.1	18.8	+4.7
37	Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI	14.1	25.3	+11.2
38	Daniel JonesQB · IND	14.0	11.1	−2.9
39	Zay FlowersWR · BAL	14.0	14.6	+0.6
40	Bucky IrvingRB · TB	13.9	31.5	+17.6
41	Kyler MurrayQB · MIN	13.9	18.3	+4.4
42	Sam DarnoldQB · SEA	13.8	8.3	−5.5
43	Nico CollinsWR · HOU	13.6	10.6	−3.0
44	Ashton JeantyRB · LV	13.6	10.7	−2.9
45	Tee HigginsWR · CIN	13.4	4.2	−9.2
46	Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ	13.4	23.4	+10.0
47	Jayden DanielsQB · WAS	13.4	32.3	+18.9
48	Davante AdamsWR · LA	13.3	22.1	+8.8
49	Aaron JonesRB · MIN	13.3	18.7	+5.4
50	Parker WashingtonWR · JAX	13.3	30.4	+17.1
51	Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL	13.3	14.4	+1.1
52	Carnell TateWR · TEN	12.9	1.6	−11.3
53	Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN	12.8	4.8	−8.0
54	Geno SmithQB · NYJ	12.8	10.0	−2.8
55	Cam SkatteboRB · NYG	12.8	7.1	−5.7
56	DK MetcalfWR · PIT	12.7	5.3	−7.4
57	Michael WilsonWR · ARI	12.6	7.3	−5.3
58	Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLE	12.6	8.0	−4.6
59	Justin JeffersonWR · MIN	12.5	18.8	+6.3
60	Trey McBrideTE · ARI	12.5	21.6	+9.1
61	George PickensWR · DAL	12.3	28.0	+15.7
62	Malik NabersWR · NYG	12.0	29.1	+17.1
63	Christian WatsonWR · GB	11.9	32.3	+20.4
64	Malik WillisQB · MIA	11.9	18.9	+7.0
65	Cam WardQB · TEN	11.8	5.0	−6.8
66	Denzel BostonWR · CLE	11.7	13.6	+1.9
67	Jameis WinstonQB · NYG	11.7	25.7	+14.0
68	Rome OdunzeWR · CHI	11.7	5.0	−6.7
69	Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLE	11.7	1.4	−10.3
70	Tony PollardRB · TEN	11.6	5.2	−6.4
71	Josh DownsWR · IND	11.6	7.7	−3.9
72	Bhayshul TutenRB · JAX	11.4	11.6	+0.2
73	Rhamondre StevensonRB · NE	11.4	17.5	+6.1
74	Jeremiyah LoveRB · ARI	11.3	2.2	−9.1
75	Terry McLaurinWR · WAS	11.2	12.2	+1.0
76	KC ConcepcionWR · CLE	11.2	1.5	−9.7
77	Tucker KraftTE · GB	11.1	11.6	+0.5
78	D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI	11.0	17.3	+6.3
79	Emanuel WilsonRB · SEA	11.0	13.2	+2.2
80	Jameson WilliamsWR · DET	11.0	18.7	+7.7
81	Emeka EgbukaQWR · TB	11.0	17.2	+6.2
82	Brenton StrangeTE · JAX	10.8	13.8	+3.0
83	Tre TuckerWR · LV	10.5	7.5	−3.0
84	Ollie Gordon IIRB · MIA	10.5	14.8	+4.3
85	Malik WashingtonWR · MIA	10.5	12.1	+1.6
86	Mike EvansWR · SF	10.5	26.3	+15.8
87	MarShawn LloydRB · GB	10.5	16.7	+6.2
88	Oronde Gadsden IITE · LAC	10.4	0.0	−10.4
89	Dalton KincaidTE · BUF	10.3	3.7	−6.6
90	Brock BowersTE · LV	10.3	23.0	+12.7
91	Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TEN	10.3	11.3	+1.0
92	Romeo DoubsWR · NE	10.3	2.6	−7.7
93	Matthew GoldenWR · GB	10.2	20.3	+10.1
94	J.K. DobbinsRB · DEN	10.1	15.4	+5.3
95	Juwan JohnsonTE · NO	10.1	5.6	−4.5
96	David MontgomeryRB · HOU	10.0	1.1	−8.9
97	Mark AndrewsTE · BAL	9.9	4.8	−5.1
98	Chris Godwin Jr.WR · TB	9.9	7.0	−2.9
99	Colston LovelandTE · CHI	9.9	3.9	−6.0
100	Sam LaPortaTE · DET	9.8	19.8	+10.0
101	Keenan AllenWR · IND	9.8	9.5	−0.3
102	Dalton SchultzTE · HOU	9.7	6.0	−3.7
103	Cade OttonTE · TB	9.6	5.5	−4.1
104	Courtland SuttonWR · DEN	9.6	9.8	+0.2
105	T.J. HockensonTE · MIN	9.6	1.7	−7.9
106	Jakobi MeyersWR · JAX	9.4	5.7	−3.7
107	RJ HarveyRB · DEN	9.4	0.7	−8.7
108	Omarion HamptonRB · LAC	9.4	4.9	−4.5
109	Khalil ShakirWR · BUF	9.3	11.0	+1.7
110	Alvin KamaraRB · NO	9.3	2.6	−6.7
111	Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · WAS	9.3	14.2	+4.9
112	Dallas GoedertTE · PHI	9.1	9.8	+0.7
113	Luther Burden IIIWR · CHI	9.1	8.9	−0.2
114	Jalon DanielsQB · TB	9.0	13.9	+4.9
115	TreVeyon HendersonRB · NE	9.0	4.8	−4.2
116	Isaiah WilliamsWR · NYJ	8.8	2.9	−5.9
117	Brian RobinsonRB · ATL	8.8	1.6	−7.2
118	Dohnte MeyersWR · CIN	8.8	3.2	−5.6
119	Devaughn VeleWR · NO	8.7	6.6	−2.1
120	Rachaad WhiteRB · WAS	8.7	3.0	−5.7
121	Tre HarrisWR · LAC	8.7	3.6	−5.1
122	Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SF	8.7	2.5	−6.2
123	Keon ColemanWR · BUF	8.7	7.7	−1.0
124	Michael MayerTE · LV	8.6	1.2	−7.4
125	Justin HerbertQB · LAC	8.5	10.2	+1.7
126	Isaiah LikelyTE · NYG	8.5	32.4	+23.9
127	Makai LemonWR · PHI	8.2	9.3	+1.1
128	Dontayvion WicksWR · PHI	8.1	11.3	+3.2
129	Hunter HenryTE · NE	8.1	13.4	+5.3
130	Woody MarksRB · HOU	8.0	12.5	+4.5
131	Jake FergusonTE · DAL	7.9	4.9	−3.0
132	AJ BarnerTE · SEA	7.7	5.0	−2.7
133	Antonio WilliamsWR · WAS	7.6	6.1	−1.5
134	Jauan JenningsWR · MIN	7.5	0.0	−7.5
135	Kenyon SadiqTE · NYJ	7.5	0.3	−7.2
136	Mike GesickiTE · CIN	7.4	7.4	±0.0
137	Pat FreiermuthTE · PIT	7.3	21.5	+14.2
138	Ryan FlournoyWR · DAL	7.2	12.0	+4.8
139	Kalif RaymondWR · CHI	7.2	3.4	−3.8
140	Kaleb JohnsonRB · GB	7.2	2.6	−4.6
141	Tyler AllgeierRB · ARI	7.1	3.6	−3.5
142	Rashod BatemanWR · BAL	7.1	11.2	+4.1
143	Kenny GainwellRB · TB	7.0	5.8	−1.2
144	Isaac TeSlaaWR · DET	7.0	0.0	−7.0
145	Chris BellWR · MIA	7.0	2.6	−4.4
146	Kyle PittsTE · ATL	6.9	15.2	+8.3
147	Zach ErtzTE · PHI	6.8	0.0	−6.8
148	Brian Thomas Jr.WR · JAX	6.8	0.0	−6.8
149	Tyler HigbeeTE · LA	6.6	13.3	+6.7
150	Kendre MillerRB · NO	6.6	9.0	+2.4
151	Rashid ShaheedWR · SEA	6.5	4.3	−2.2
152	Tyler HuntleyQB · BAL	6.4	24.0	+17.6
153	Darnell WashingtonTE · PIT	6.3	3.2	−3.1
154	Malachi FieldsWR · NYG	6.3	4.0	−2.3
155	Austin EkelerRB · WAS	6.2	2.4	−3.8
156	Tyjae SpearsRB · TEN	6.2	9.8	+3.6
157	Blake CorumRB · LA	6.2	16.2	+10.0
158	Keaton MitchellRB · LAC	6.1	5.9	−0.2
159	Xavier HutchinsonWR · HOU	6.1	10.5	+4.4
160	Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · JAX	6.1	2.1	−4.0
161	Gunnar HelmTE · TEN	6.0	0.0	−6.0
162	Ted Hurst IIIWR · TB	6.0	0.0	−6.0
163	Cooper KuppWR · SEA	6.0	3.5	−2.5
164	Evan EngramTE · DEN	6.0	9.5	+3.5
165	Kayshon BoutteWR · HOU	6.0	6.8	+0.8
166	Greg DulcichTE · MIA	5.9	9.7	+3.8
167	Raheim SandersRB · CLE	5.9	2.3	−3.6
168	Mike Washington Jr.RB · LV	5.8	2.0	−3.8
169	DeMario DouglasWR · NE	5.8	22.5	+16.7
170	Laquon TreadwellWR · IND	5.6	5.4	−0.2
171	George HolaniRB · SEA	5.5	5.1	−0.4
172	Jaylin NoelWR · HOU	5.5	15.2	+9.7
173	Mitchell TinsleyWR · CIN	5.5	0.0	−5.5
174	Will ShipleyRB · PHI	5.4	8.3	+2.9
175	Jahan DotsonWR · ATL	5.3	7.4	+2.1
176	Jaylen WrightRB · MIA	5.2	1.1	−4.1
177	Kaelon BlackRB · SF	5.2	1.6	−3.6
178	Kendrick BourneWR · ARI	5.2	12.0	+6.8
179	Darnell MooneyWR · NYG	5.2	3.4	−1.8
180	Samaje PerineRB · CIN	5.1	15.8	+10.7
181	Darius CooperWR · PHI	5.1	15.1	+10.0
182	Dyami BrownWR · WAS	5.1	1.2	−3.9
183	Jerry JeudyWR · CLE	5.0	4.9	−0.1
184	Elic AyomanorWR · TEN	4.8	2.7	−2.1
185	Roman WilsonWR · PIT	4.8	0.0	−4.8
186	Chig OkonkwoTE · WAS	4.7	10.0	+5.3
187	Justice HillRB · BAL	4.6	9.8	+5.2
188	Kimani VidalRB · LAC	4.6	12.6	+8.0
189	Tez JohnsonWR · TB	4.6	7.4	+2.8
190	Germie BernardWR · PIT	4.4	14.4	+10.0
191	Treylon BurksWR · WAS	4.4	4.6	+0.2
192	Bryce LanceWR · NO	4.3	0.0	−4.3
193	Dawson KnoxTE · BUF	4.3	1.6	−2.7
194	Noah FantTE · NO	4.3	1.7	−2.6
195	Kevin Coleman Jr.WR · MIA	4.2	12.0	+7.8
196	Troy FranklinWR · DEN	4.2	3.6	−0.6
197	Najee HarrisRB · NYG	4.2	2.4	−1.8
198	Calvin RidleyWR · TEN	4.0	5.3	+1.3
199	Johnny MundtTE · PHI	4.0	0.0	−4.0
200	Ty JohnsonRB · BUF	4.0	11.2	+7.2
201	Seth McGowanRB · IND	3.9	2.9	−1.0
202	Matthew HibnerTE · BAL	3.9	0.0	−3.9
203	Theo JohnsonTE · NYG	3.8	5.5	+1.7
204	Will KacmarekTE · MIA	3.8	1.5	−2.3
205	Eli RaridonTE · NE	3.7	10.7	+7.0
206	CJ DonaldsonRB · NO	3.7	3.0	−0.7
207	Efton Chism IIIWR · NE	3.7	10.9	+7.2
208	Olamide ZaccheausWR · ATL	3.6	0.0	−3.6
209	Cole KmetTE · CHI	3.6	1.8	−1.8
210	Devontez WalkerWR · BAL	3.6	8.9	+5.3
211	Jordan WhittingtonWR · LA	3.6	0.0	−3.6
212	Charlie KolarTE · LAC	3.6	4.7	+1.1
213	Tyler GoodsonRB · DAL	3.5	0.0	−3.5
214	Tai FeltonWR · MIN	3.4	4.7	+1.3
215	Mason TaylorTE · NYJ	3.3	5.4	+2.1
216	Tyson BagentQB · CHI	3.3	1.2	−2.1
217	Tyler BadieRB · DEN	3.3	1.1	−2.2
218	Colby ParkinsonTE · LA	3.2	1.3	−1.9
219	Theo Wease Jr.WR · LAC	3.2	2.6	−0.6
220	Zachariah BranchWR · ATL	3.1	3.5	+0.4
221	Marvin Mims Jr.WR · DEN	3.1	2.9	−0.2
222	Roschon JohnsonRB · CHI	3.1	9.0	+5.9
223	Josh CameronWR · JAX	3.1	7.3	+4.2
224	Daniel BellingerTE · TEN	3.0	1.5	−1.5
225	Van JeffersonWR · WAS	3.0	0.0	−3.0
226	Konata MumpfieldWR · LA	3.0	0.0	−3.0
227	Cody WhiteWR · LV	2.9	6.4	+3.5
228	Connor HeywardRB · LV	2.9	0.0	−2.9
229	Chris MooreWR · BAL	2.9	0.0	−2.9
230	Jonnu SmithTE · GB	2.9	0.0	−2.9
231	Jacob CowingWR · SF	2.8	-0.1	−2.9
232	Adam TrautmanTE · DEN	2.8	0.0	−2.8
233	Foster MoreauTE · HOU	2.8	2.8	±0.0
234	Skyy MooreWR · GB	2.7	1.0	−1.7
235	Davis AllenTE · LA	2.7	4.4	+1.7
236	Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · PIT	2.7	4.2	+1.5
237	Mark RedmanTE · GB	2.7	0.0	−2.7
238	Dameon PierceRB · PHI	2.7	3.2	+0.5
239	Nate AdkinsTE · DEN	2.7	0.0	−2.7
240	Elijah HigginsTE · ARI	2.6	8.7	+6.1
241	Demond ClaiborneRB · MIN	2.6	1.6	−1.0
242	Tory HortonWR · SEA	2.6	0.0	−2.6
243	Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · NYG	2.6	5.1	+2.5
244	Kyle WilliamsWR · NE	2.6	18.1	+15.5
245	Jordan WatkinsWR · SF	2.5	0.0	−2.5
246	Jeremy RuckertTE · NYJ	2.4	0.0	−2.4
247	Brevyn Spann-FordTE · DAL	2.4	0.0	−2.4
248	Austin HooperTE · ATL	2.4	0.0	−2.4
249	Tanner HudsonTE · CIN	2.3	10.4	+8.1
250	KaVontae TurpinWR · DAL	2.2	2.2	±0.0
251	Tutu AtwellWR · LA	2.2	1.4	−0.8
252	Ben SinnottTE · WAS	2.2	0.0	−2.2
253	Cedric TillmanWR · NO	2.2	0.0	−2.2
254	Deion BurksWR · IND	2.1	0.0	−2.1
255	Jalen TolbertWR · MIA	2.0	3.2	+1.2
256	Jared WayneWR · MIA	2.0	0.0	−2.0
257	Sam RoushTE · CHI	2.0	0.0	−2.0
258	Dareke YoungWR · LV	2.0	0.0	−2.0
259	Travis HunterWR · JAX	1.9	1.9	±0.0
260	Isaiah DavisRB · NYJ	1.9	2.7	+0.8
261	Chris BlairWR · ATL	1.9	0.0	−1.9
262	Jelani WoodsTE · NYJ	1.9	0.0	−1.9
263	Myles PriceWR · MIN	1.9	3.0	+1.1
264	Sione VakiRB · DET	1.9	1.1	−0.8
265	Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · DEN	1.9	1.8	−0.1
266	Jaleel McLaughlinRB · CLE	1.8	0.0	−1.8
267	Chimere DikeWR · TEN	1.8	5.8	+4.0
268	Nate BoerkircherTE · JAX	1.8	4.0	+2.2
269	Ian ThomasTE · LV	1.8	1.9	+0.1
270	Brandin CooksWR · SF	1.8	7.7	+5.9
271	Malik McClainWR · NYJ	1.7	0.0	−1.7
272	Sean TuckerRB · TB	1.7	1.8	+0.1
273	Ray DavisRB · BUF	1.7	4.3	+2.6
274	Corey KinerRB · NE	1.7	4.9	+3.2
275	Ben SkowronekWR · PIT	1.7	0.0	−1.7
276	Fernando MendozaQB · LV	1.7	2.2	+0.5
277	Ryan MillerWR · NE	1.6	0.0	−1.6
278	Elijah MooreWR · PHI	1.6	0.0	−1.6
279	Elijah ArroyoTE · SEA	1.5	0.0	−1.5
280	Brock WrightTE · DET	1.5	2.1	+0.6
281	Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · IND	1.5	0.0	−1.5
282	J. Michael SturdivantWR · GB	1.5	0.0	−1.5
283	Tim PatrickWR · NYJ	1.5	4.6	+3.1
284	Derius DavisWR · LAC	1.5	0.0	−1.5
285	DeeJay DallasRB · MIN	1.5	2.1	+0.6
286	Brevin JordanTE · HOU	1.5	0.0	−1.5
287	Bo MeltonWR · GB	1.5	5.0	+3.5
288	DJ HermanRB · MIA	1.5	0.0	−1.5
289	Tanner ArkinTE · NE	1.5	0.0	−1.5
290	Drew SampleTE · CIN	1.5	1.5	±0.0
291	Jackson HawesTE · BUF	1.4	0.0	−1.4
292	Deven ThompkinsWR · LV	1.4	1.8	+0.4
293	Mo Alie-CoxTE · IND	1.4	3.4	+2.0
294	LeQuint Allen Jr.RB · JAX	1.4	0.0	−1.4
295	Charlie WoernerTE · ATL	1.4	2.3	+0.9
296	Andrew BeckRB · NYJ	1.4	0.0	−1.4
297	Luke FarrellTE · SF	1.4	0.0	−1.4
298	Isaiah BondWR · CLE	1.4	10.4	+9.0
299	John BatesTE · WAS	1.4	1.1	−0.3
300	Ameer AbdullahRB · JAX	1.3	0.0	−1.3
301	Reggie VirgilWR · ARI	1.3	4.9	+3.6
302	Jahdae WalkerWR · CHI	1.3	0.0	−1.3
303	Zavion ThomasWR · CHI	1.3	3.2	+1.9
304	Tyrod TaylorQB · GB	1.3	-0.2	−1.5
305	J.J. McCarthyQB · NYG	1.3	0.2	−1.1
306	Cade StoverTE · HOU	1.3	0.0	−1.3
307	Hunter LuepkeRB · DAL	1.3	0.5	−0.8
308	Malik BensonWR · LV	1.2	1.6	+0.4
309	Jeshaun JonesWR · MIN	1.2	4.2	+3.0
310	Malachi CorleyWR · CLE	1.2	0.0	−1.2
311	Skyler BellWR · BUF	1.2	0.0	−1.2
312	Gavin BartholomewTE · MIN	1.1	8.3	+7.2
313	Eric SaubertTE · SEA	1.1	0.0	−1.1
314	Bam KnightRB · ARI	1.1	0.8	−0.3
315	Brandon SmithWR · PIT	1.1	0.0	−1.1
316	Blake WhiteheartTE · CLE	1.1	0.0	−1.1
317	Hayden RucciTE · LAC	1.1	7.7	+6.6
318	Erick AllTE · CIN	1.1	5.5	+4.4
319	Oscar DelpTE · NO	1.1	0.0	−1.1
320	Colson YankoffTE · WAS	1.0	0.0	−1.0
321	Josh CuevasTE · BAL	1.0	4.6	+3.6
322	Case KeenumQB · CHI	1.0	0.7	−0.3
323	Pierre StrongRB · GB	1.0	4.8	+3.8
324	Jonathan MingoWR · DAL	1.0	4.0	+3.0
325	Trent SherfieldWR · BUF	1.0	0.0	−1.0
326	Luke SchoonmakerTE · DAL	1.0	1.9	+0.9
327	Alec IngoldRB · LAC	0.9	0.0	−0.9
328	Nick MuseTE · ATL	0.9	0.0	−0.9
329	Chris ManhertzTE · NYG	0.8	0.0	−0.8
330	Josh WhyleTE · GB	0.8	0.0	−0.8
331	Dylan LaubeRB · LV	0.8	11.5	+10.7
332	Andrew OgletreeTE · IND	0.8	1.4	+0.6
333	Dalen CambreWR · NYG	0.8	0.0	−0.8
334	Michael BurtonRB · CLE	0.8	0.0	−0.8
335	Kalel MullingsRB · TEN	0.8	0.3	−0.5
336	Patrick RicardRB · NYG	0.7	0.0	−0.7
337	Jalen BrooksWR · ARI	0.7	3.6	+2.9
338	Quintin MorrisTE · JAX	0.7	0.0	−0.7
339	Max BredesonRB · MIN	0.7	0.0	−0.7
340	Lew Nichols IIIRB · PIT	0.7	0.6	−0.1
341	Adam PrenticeRB · DEN	0.7	0.3	−0.4
342	Teagan QuitorianoTE · ARI	0.7	15.5	+14.8
343	Brady RussellRB · SEA	0.6	0.0	−0.6
344	E.J. JenkinsTE · ATL	0.6	0.0	−0.6
345	Payne DurhamTE · TB	0.6	1.5	+0.9
346	Scott MatlockRB · LAC	0.6	0.0	−0.6
347	Bauer SharpTE · TB	0.6	0.0	−0.6
348	Riley NowakowskiRB · PIT	0.5	0.0	−0.5
349	Dare OgunbowaleRB · HOU	0.5	0.0	−0.5
350	Tanner KoziolTE · JAX	0.5	0.0	−0.5
351	Ben YurosekTE · MIN	0.5	2.0	+1.5
352	Kameron JohnsonWR · TB	0.5	0.0	−0.5
353	Mason RudolphQB · PIT	0.5	-0.2	−0.7
354	Cameron LatuTE · NE	0.5	0.0	−0.5
355	Carlos WashingtonRB · MIA	0.5	0.0	−0.5
356	Tyler ConklinTE · DET	0.4	0.0	−0.4
357	Nick VannettTE · BAL	0.4	0.0	−0.4
358	Brayden WillisTE · SF	0.4	0.0	−0.4
359	Tua TagovailoaQB · ATL	0.4	-0.6	−1.0
360	Joshua DobbsQB · DET	0.3	0.0	−0.3
361	Simi FehokoWR · ARI	0.3	0.0	−0.3
362	Ko KieftTE · TB	0.3	0.0	−0.3
363	Kylen GransonTE · TEN	0.2	0.0	−0.2
364	Keleki LatuTE · BUF	0.2	0.0	−0.2
365	Robert TonyanTE · PIT	0.2	0.0	−0.2
366	Seydou TraoreTE · MIA	0.2	0.0	−0.2
367	Tay MartinWR · DET	0.2	0.0	−0.2

Week 4

360 players scored · 89 projected for 10+ PPR

Week 4 rankings vs results, every player →

For all 89 players we projected for 10+ PPR points, our projection missed by 6.7 points on a typical player. On the 85 of them with a season average to compare, simply using that average would have missed by 7.5 and ours by 6.6: our projections were 12% closer.

This week shows the model run before kickoff, which can differ a little from the numbers readers saw.

Closer than the season average

12%

6.6 vs 7.5 points, on the 85 players with a season average to compare

Within 7 points

53 of 89

within 5: 40 of 89

Did the ranking work?

Yes

Players we ranked higher scored 5.2 more points on average (17.7 vs 12.5).

Usage: targets

2.1

average miss in targets per player

Average miss by position

QB4.2 points · 26 players

RB6.7 points · 23 players

TE7.2 points · 9 players

WR8.6 points · 31 players

Scored more than projected

Tetairoa McMillan projected 12.1, scored 45.2
CeeDee Lamb projected 14.6, scored 41.3
Kyren Williams projected 14.6, scored 36.7
Nico Collins projected 14.3, scored 30.8
Javonte Williams projected 14.9, scored 31.3

Scored less than projected

Rashee Rice projected 14.6, scored 0.0
Malik Willis projected 13.5, scored 2.5
Parker Washington projected 12.9, scored 2.0
Saquon Barkley projected 12.5, scored 2.0
Ja'Marr Chase projected 16.0, scored 5.7

Every player, Week 4 (360)

#	Player	Projected PPRProj	Scored PPRScored	DifferenceDiff
1	Josh AllenQB · BUF	22.2	18.5	−3.7
2	Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET	21.7	17.7	−4.0
3	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA	19.0	12.6	−6.4
4	Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET	18.5	15.5	−3.0
5	Jared GoffQB · DET	18.5	20.5	+2.0
6	Lamar JacksonQB · BAL	18.4	18.9	+0.5
7	Brock PurdyQB · SF	18.3	19.6	+1.3
8	Christian McCaffreyRB · SF	18.2	16.0	−2.2
9	Matthew StaffordQB · LA	18.1	9.7	−8.4
10	Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL	17.9	27.7	+9.8
11	Joe BurrowQB · CIN	17.8	23.7	+5.9
12	Derrick HenryRB · BAL	17.8	15.9	−1.9
13	Dak PrescottQB · DAL	17.3	18.1	+0.8
14	Jonathan TaylorRB · IND	17.3	22.7	+5.4
15	Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX	17.0	13.1	−3.9
16	James CookRB · BUF	16.8	16.3	−0.5
17	Jalen HurtsQB · PHI	16.7	13.5	−3.2
18	Jordan LoveQB · GB	16.5	13.1	−3.4
19	Chris OlaveWR · NO	16.4	19.6	+3.2
20	Tyler ShoughQB · NO	16.3	15.9	−0.4
21	Puka NacuaWR · LA	16.1	27.7	+11.6
22	Patrick MahomesQB · KC	16.0	17.0	+1.0
23	Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC	16.0	30.9	+14.9
24	Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN	16.0	5.7	−10.3
25	Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ	15.8	5.7	−10.1
26	Drake MayeQB · NE	15.6	26.2	+10.6
27	Trey McBrideTE · ARI	15.5	10.1	−5.4
28	Ashton JeantyRB · LV	15.5	18.6	+3.1
29	Bo NixQB · DEN	14.9	13.6	−1.3
30	Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL	14.9	31.3	+16.4
31	Daniel JonesQB · IND	14.9	7.9	−7.0
32	Drake LondonWR · ATL	14.9	14.6	−0.3
33	Justin HerbertQB · LAC	14.8	9.6	−5.2
34	C.J. StroudQB · HOU	14.6	23.1	+8.5
35	Rashee RiceWR · KC	14.6	0.0	−14.6
36	CeeDee LambWR · DAL	14.6	41.3	+26.7
37	Tyler WarrenTE · IND	14.6	9.1	−5.5
38	Kyren WilliamsRB · LA	14.6	36.7	+22.1
39	Geno SmithQB · NYJ	14.4	8.8	−5.6
40	Chase BrownRB · CIN	14.3	19.1	+4.8
41	D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI	14.3	7.4	−6.9
42	Nico CollinsWR · HOU	14.3	30.8	+16.5
43	Kirk CousinsQB · LV	14.3	22.6	+8.3
44	Sam DarnoldQB · SEA	14.3	13.3	−1.0
45	Bryce YoungQB · CAR	14.2	21.5	+7.3
46	Bucky IrvingRB · TB	14.0	6.1	−7.9
47	Chuba HubbardRB · CAR	14.0	25.9	+11.9
48	Jeremiyah LoveRB · ARI	13.9	6.5	−7.4
49	George KittleTE · SF	13.8	17.0	+3.2
50	Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI	13.7	10.4	−3.3
51	Malik WillisQB · MIA	13.5	2.5	−11.0
52	Kyler MurrayQB · MIN	13.5	11.5	−2.0
53	Davante AdamsWR · LA	13.4	7.2	−6.2
54	Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL	13.4	12.7	−0.7
55	Tee HigginsWR · CIN	13.1	26.7	+13.6
56	Aaron JonesRB · MIN	13.1	16.8	+3.7
57	George PickensWR · DAL	13.0	9.5	−3.5
58	Parker WashingtonWR · JAX	12.9	2.0	−10.9
59	Carnell TateWR · TEN	12.8	21.5	+8.7
60	Omarion HamptonRB · LAC	12.6	13.3	+0.7
61	Cam SkatteboRB · NYG	12.5	7.6	−4.9
62	Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI	12.5	2.0	−10.5
63	Travis KelceTE · KC	12.4	3.5	−8.9
64	Tony PollardRB · TEN	12.4	13.0	+0.6
65	Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN	12.4	14.5	+2.1
66	Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR	12.1	45.2	+33.1
67	Michael WilsonWR · ARI	11.9	16.5	+4.6
68	Christian WatsonWR · GB	11.9	7.7	−4.2
69	Emeka EgbukaQWR · TB	11.8	3.3	−8.5
70	Dalton KincaidTE · BUF	11.6	1.7	−9.9
71	Malik NabersWR · NYG	11.4	23.2	+11.8
72	David MontgomeryRB · HOU	11.3	4.3	−7.0
73	Bhayshul TutenRB · JAX	11.3	11.1	−0.2
74	Zay FlowersWR · BAL	11.1	25.8	+14.7
75	Cam WardQB · TEN	11.1	15.6	+4.5
76	Brock BowersTE · LV	10.7	20.6	+9.9
77	Rhamondre StevensonRB · NE	10.7	18.4	+7.7
78	Sam LaPortaTE · DET	10.5	22.4	+11.9
79	Jameson WilliamsWR · DET	10.4	16.2	+5.8
80	Isaiah LikelyTE · NYG	10.4	13.6	+3.2
81	Jordan AddisonWR · MIN	10.4	9.1	−1.3
82	Josh DownsWR · IND	10.2	4.6	−5.6
83	Rome OdunzeWR · CHI	10.2	15.4	+5.2
84	Mike EvansWR · SF	10.2	12.6	+2.4
85	Ladd McConkeyWR · LAC	10.2	0.0	−10.2
86	Courtland SuttonWR · DEN	10.1	1.4	−8.7
87	Luther Burden IIIWR · CHI	10.1	11.4	+1.3
88	Stefon DiggsWR · WAS	10.1	8.5	−1.6
89	Dalton SchultzTE · HOU	10.0	2.9	−7.1
90	J.K. DobbinsRB · DEN	9.8	7.2	−2.6
91	Malik WashingtonWR · MIA	9.6	12.0	+2.4
92	Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TEN	9.6	11.0	+1.4
93	T.J. HockensonTE · MIN	9.6	24.9	+15.3
94	Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · WAS	9.6	7.0	−2.6
95	Jakobi MeyersWR · JAX	9.5	6.3	−3.2
96	Jameis WinstonQB · NYG	9.5	18.0	+8.5
97	Cade OttonTE · TB	9.5	7.7	−1.8
98	Juwan JohnsonTE · NO	9.4	11.9	+2.5
99	AJ BarnerTE · SEA	9.3	2.2	−7.1
100	Matthew GoldenWR · GB	9.3	11.7	+2.4
101	Devaughn VeleWR · NO	9.2	17.4	+8.2
102	DJ MooreWR · BUF	9.2	2.7	−6.5
103	TreVeyon HendersonRB · NE	9.2	4.2	−5.0
104	Kalif RaymondWR · CHI	9.1	2.6	−6.5
105	Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SF	8.9	18.0	+9.1
106	Quentin JohnstonWR · LAC	8.8	5.0	−3.8
107	Rashod BatemanWR · BAL	8.7	6.6	−2.1
108	Kenyon SadiqTE · NYJ	8.7	0.0	−8.7
109	Khalil ShakirWR · BUF	8.7	13.2	+4.5
110	Greg DulcichTE · MIA	8.7	0.0	−8.7
111	Xavier WorthyWR · KC	8.6	11.0	+2.4
112	Tucker KraftTE · GB	8.6	16.5	+7.9
113	Michael MayerTE · LV	8.5	16.2	+7.7
114	Tyjae SpearsRB · TEN	8.4	1.6	−6.8
115	Tre TuckerWR · LV	8.3	8.4	+0.1
116	Brenton StrangeTE · JAX	8.3	16.5	+8.2
117	Chris Godwin Jr.WR · TB	8.2	9.1	+0.9
118	Colston LovelandTE · CHI	8.1	11.7	+3.6
119	Gunnar HelmTE · TEN	8.1	3.5	−4.6
120	Marcus MariotaQB · WAS	8.1	5.3	−2.8
121	Ollie Gordon IIRB · MIA	8.0	18.0	+10.0
122	MarShawn LloydRB · GB	8.0	9.9	+1.9
123	Alvin KamaraRB · NO	8.0	22.8	+14.8
124	Mack HollinsWR · NE	7.9	8.3	+0.4
125	Hunter HenryTE · NE	7.8	11.2	+3.4
126	Romeo DoubsWR · NE	7.8	23.8	+16.0
127	RJ HarveyRB · DEN	7.8	19.3	+11.5
128	Kenny GainwellRB · TB	7.8	10.7	+2.9
129	Dontayvion WicksWR · PHI	7.7	4.8	−2.9
130	Jake FergusonTE · DAL	7.7	4.1	−3.6
131	Emanuel WilsonRB · SEA	7.5	27.0	+19.5
132	Blake CorumRB · LA	7.5	3.1	−4.4
133	Mark AndrewsTE · BAL	7.4	13.7	+6.3
134	Rashid ShaheedWR · SEA	7.2	12.3	+5.1
135	Ted Hurst IIIWR · TB	7.2	4.5	−2.7
136	Woody MarksRB · HOU	7.1	8.2	+1.1
137	Tyler AllgeierRB · ARI	7.1	12.9	+5.8
138	Ryan FlournoyWR · DAL	6.9	7.7	+0.8
139	Kaleb JohnsonRB · GB	6.9	2.2	−4.7
140	Braelon AllenRB · NYJ	6.9	8.7	+1.8
141	Darren WallerTE · CAR	6.7	6.6	−0.1
142	Jauan JenningsWR · MIN	6.7	1.8	−4.9
143	Xavier HutchinsonWR · HOU	6.7	7.6	+0.9
144	Cooper KuppWR · SEA	6.6	2.3	−4.3
145	Makai LemonWR · PHI	6.5	5.7	−0.8
146	Keaton MitchellRB · LAC	6.5	11.3	+4.8
147	Tyler HigbeeTE · LA	6.5	11.7	+5.2
148	Malachi FieldsWR · NYG	6.5	13.2	+6.7
149	Brian Thomas Jr.WR · JAX	6.3	9.7	+3.4
150	Oronde Gadsden IITE · LAC	6.3	8.8	+2.5
151	Kyle PittsTE · ATL	6.3	7.7	+1.4
152	Kyle MonangaiQRB · CHI	6.3	28.0	+21.7
153	Isaiah WilliamsWR · NYJ	6.1	15.3	+9.2
154	Pat BryantQWR · DEN	6.1	7.7	+1.6
155	Chris BellWR · MIA	6.1	0.0	−6.1
156	Tre HarrisWR · LAC	6.0	9.0	+3.0
157	Elic AyomanorWR · TEN	6.0	3.2	−2.8
158	Antonio WilliamsWR · WAS	5.9	5.1	−0.8
159	Mike GesickiTE · CIN	5.8	13.0	+7.2
160	Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · HOU	5.7	8.2	+2.5
161	Jalen NailorWR · LV	5.7	0.0	−5.7
162	DeMario DouglasWR · NE	5.7	3.5	−2.2
163	Kendrick BourneWR · ARI	5.7	0.0	−5.7
164	Brian RobinsonRB · ATL	5.6	25.7	+20.1
165	George HolaniRB · SEA	5.6	3.0	−2.6
166	Tyquan ThorntonWR · KC	5.6	28.1	+22.5
167	Keon ColemanWR · BUF	5.5	23.6	+18.1
168	Evan EngramTE · DEN	5.5	1.6	−3.9
169	Samaje PerineRB · CIN	5.4	0.7	−4.7
170	Jahan DotsonWR · ATL	5.3	13.4	+8.1
171	Kayshon BoutteWR · HOU	5.3	6.6	+1.3
172	Emmett JohnsonRB · KC	5.2	2.0	−3.2
173	Najee HarrisRB · NYG	5.0	3.0	−2.0
174	Darnell MooneyWR · NYG	5.0	0.0	−5.0
175	Kendre MillerRB · NO	4.8	1.9	−2.9
176	Dohnte MeyersWR · CIN	4.8	15.2	+10.4
177	Kaelon BlackRB · SF	4.8	1.3	−3.5
178	Chig OkonkwoTE · WAS	4.6	2.5	−2.1
179	Bryce LanceWR · NO	4.5	1.7	−2.8
180	Zach ErtzTE · PHI	4.5	3.3	−1.2
181	Isaac TeSlaaWR · DET	4.4	13.5	+9.1
182	Konata MumpfieldWR · LA	4.4	1.7	−2.7
183	Theo JohnsonTE · NYG	4.3	8.1	+3.8
184	Chris BrooksRB · GB	4.2	4.5	+0.3
185	Justice HillRB · BAL	4.2	4.5	+0.3
186	Tommy TrembleTE · CAR	4.2	5.2	+1.0
187	Cole KmetTE · CHI	4.2	3.3	−0.9
188	Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · JAX	4.1	9.5	+5.4
189	Brycen TremayneWR · CAR	4.0	5.2	+1.2
190	Ty JohnsonRB · BUF	4.0	3.2	−0.8
191	Olamide ZaccheausWR · ATL	3.9	0.0	−3.9
192	Jared WayneWR · MIA	3.8	0.0	−3.8
193	Tank BigsbyRB · PHI	3.8	5.5	+1.7
194	AJ DillonRB · CAR	3.7	1.7	−2.0
195	Mike Washington Jr.RB · LV	3.7	2.7	−1.0
196	Jaylin NoelWR · HOU	3.7	11.9	+8.2
197	Calvin RidleyWR · TEN	3.7	2.3	−1.4
198	Tyler GoodsonRB · DAL	3.6	1.2	−2.4
199	Sterling ShepardWR · NYJ	3.6	0.0	−3.6
200	Will ShipleyRB · PHI	3.6	2.3	−1.3
201	John Metchie IIIWR · CAR	3.6	6.7	+3.1
202	Case KeenumQB · CHI	3.6	0.0	−3.6
203	Noah GrayTE · KC	3.5	3.7	+0.2
204	Tez JohnsonWR · TB	3.5	4.7	+1.2
205	Kevin Coleman Jr.WR · MIA	3.5	1.3	−2.2
206	Laquon TreadwellWR · IND	3.5	9.2	+5.7
207	Dawson KnoxTE · BUF	3.5	3.3	−0.2
208	Foster MoreauTE · HOU	3.4	1.1	−2.3
209	Kimani VidalRB · LAC	3.3	11.6	+8.3
210	Austin HooperTE · ATL	3.3	1.9	−1.4
211	Corey KinerRB · NE	3.3	0.0	−3.3
212	KaVontae TurpinWR · DAL	3.3	0.0	−3.3
213	Dyami BrownWR · WAS	3.2	9.5	+6.3
214	Nate AdkinsTE · DEN	3.2	0.0	−3.2
215	Daniel BellingerTE · TEN	3.2	1.2	−2.0
216	Jonnu SmithTE · GB	3.1	2.9	−0.2
217	Tory HortonWR · SEA	3.1	7.6	+4.5
218	Tyler BadieRB · DEN	3.0	7.9	+4.9
219	Josh CameronWR · JAX	2.9	6.2	+3.3
220	Treylon BurksWR · WAS	2.9	11.7	+8.8
221	Sione VakiRB · DET	2.8	2.7	−0.1
222	Jaylen WrightRB · MIA	2.7	0.7	−2.0
223	Josh PalmerWR · BUF	2.7	1.3	−1.4
224	Troy FranklinWR · DEN	2.7	0.0	−2.7
225	Jeremy RuckertTE · NYJ	2.7	0.0	−2.7
226	Jordan WatkinsWR · SF	2.7	0.0	−2.7
227	Kyle WilliamsWR · NE	2.6	0.0	−2.6
228	Seth McGowanRB · IND	2.6	4.8	+2.2
229	Adam TrautmanTE · DEN	2.5	0.0	−2.5
230	Brevyn Spann-FordTE · DAL	2.5	0.0	−2.5
231	Skyy MooreWR · GB	2.4	0.8	−1.6
232	Johnny MundtTE · PHI	2.4	0.0	−2.4
233	Marvin Mims Jr.WR · DEN	2.4	0.0	−2.4
234	Cody WhiteWR · LV	2.4	7.6	+5.2
235	Tanner HudsonTE · CIN	2.4	1.2	−1.2
236	Eli RaridonTE · NE	2.3	2.2	−0.1
237	Kyle JuszczykRB · SF	2.3	4.8	+2.5
238	Zachariah BranchWR · ATL	2.3	3.0	+0.7
239	Will KacmarekTE · MIA	2.3	2.5	+0.2
240	Elijah HigginsTE · ARI	2.3	9.9	+7.6
241	CJ DonaldsonRB · NO	2.3	4.3	+2.0
242	Tai FeltonWR · MIN	2.3	2.4	+0.1
243	Devontez WalkerWR · BAL	2.2	2.9	+0.7
244	Jacob CowingWR · SF	2.2	0.2	−2.0
245	Jordan WhittingtonWR · LA	2.2	1.4	−0.8
246	Davis AllenTE · LA	2.2	0.0	−2.2
247	Mitchell EvansTE · CAR	2.2	1.8	−0.4
248	Malik McClainWR · NYJ	2.1	0.0	−2.1
249	Demond ClaiborneRB · MIN	2.1	1.2	−0.9
250	Chimere DikeWR · TEN	2.1	2.5	+0.4
251	Nate BoerkircherTE · JAX	2.1	2.5	+0.4
252	Drew SampleTE · CIN	2.0	0.0	−2.0
253	Tutu AtwellWR · LA	2.0	1.8	−0.2
254	Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · NYG	2.0	-0.1	−2.1
255	J. Michael SturdivantWR · GB	2.0	0.0	−2.0
256	DJ HermanRB · MIA	1.9	0.0	−1.9
257	Efton Chism IIIWR · NE	1.9	12.2	+10.3
258	Luke SchoonmakerTE · DAL	1.9	0.0	−1.9
259	Brock WrightTE · DET	1.9	1.8	−0.1
260	Ben SinnottTE · WAS	1.8	0.0	−1.8
261	Ameer AbdullahRB · JAX	1.8	0.0	−1.8
262	Jackson HawesTE · BUF	1.7	0.0	−1.7
263	DeeJay DallasRB · MIN	1.7	2.0	+0.3
264	Mo Alie-CoxTE · IND	1.7	0.0	−1.7
265	Sam RoushTE · CHI	1.6	1.8	+0.2
266	Jalen TolbertWR · MIA	1.6	0.0	−1.6
267	Brandin CooksWR · SF	1.6	0.0	−1.6
268	Dareke YoungWR · LV	1.6	-0.1	−1.7
269	Elijah ArroyoTE · SEA	1.6	0.0	−1.6
270	LaJohntay WesterWR · BAL	1.6	0.0	−1.6
271	Nicholas SingletonRB · TEN	1.6	0.2	−1.4
272	Matthew HibnerTE · BAL	1.6	5.4	+3.8
273	LeQuint Allen Jr.RB · JAX	1.6	0.0	−1.6
274	Ja'Seem ReedWR · CAR	1.5	0.0	−1.5
275	Kaytron AllenRB · MIA	1.5	0.1	−1.4
276	Cade StoverTE · HOU	1.5	3.0	+1.5
277	Jalon DanielsQB · TB	1.5	11.4	+9.9
278	Jalen RoyalsWR · KC	1.4	0.0	−1.4
279	John BatesTE · WAS	1.4	0.0	−1.4
280	Bo MeltonWR · GB	1.4	0.0	−1.4
281	Ryan MillerWR · NE	1.4	0.0	−1.4
282	Ashton DulinWR · IND	1.4	5.9	+4.5
283	Luke FarrellTE · SF	1.4	0.0	−1.4
284	Chris BlairWR · ATL	1.4	0.0	−1.4
285	Eric SaubertTE · SEA	1.4	0.0	−1.4
286	Brashard SmithRB · KC	1.4	0.0	−1.4
287	Kevin Austin Jr.WR · NO	1.3	0.0	−1.3
288	Hunter LuepkeRB · DAL	1.3	1.2	−0.1
289	Alec IngoldRB · LAC	1.3	0.0	−1.3
290	Braxton BerriosWR · NYG	1.3	0.0	−1.3
291	Quintin MorrisTE · JAX	1.2	0.0	−1.2
292	Charlie WoernerTE · ATL	1.2	0.0	−1.2
293	Malik BensonWR · LV	1.2	0.0	−1.2
294	Darius CooperWR · PHI	1.2	18.3	+17.1
295	Hunter LongTE · ARI	1.2	2.0	+0.8
296	Jaylin LaneWR · WAS	1.2	0.0	−1.2
297	Jahdae WalkerWR · CHI	1.2	0.0	−1.2
298	Myles PriceWR · MIN	1.2	2.8	+1.6
299	Oscar DelpTE · NO	1.1	0.0	−1.1
300	Erick AllTE · CIN	1.1	0.0	−1.1
301	Sean TuckerRB · TB	1.1	7.0	+5.9
302	Ray DavisRB · BUF	1.1	1.7	+0.6
303	Payne DurhamTE · TB	1.1	0.0	−1.1
304	Jonathan MingoWR · DAL	1.1	0.0	−1.1
305	Jake BriningstoolTE · KC	1.1	0.0	−1.1
306	Craig ReynoldsRB · WAS	1.1	0.4	−0.7
307	Colson YankoffTE · WAS	1.1	0.0	−1.1
308	Durham SmytheTE · BAL	1.1	0.0	−1.1
309	Connor HeywardRB · LV	1.1	1.5	+0.4
310	Deion BurksWR · IND	1.0	1.6	+0.6
311	Mark RedmanTE · GB	1.0	4.9	+3.9
312	Elijah MooreWR · PHI	1.0	0.0	−1.0
313	Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · PIT	1.0	0.0	−1.0
314	David MooreWR · CAR	1.0	0.0	−1.0
315	Brevin JordanTE · HOU	1.0	2.3	+1.3
316	Jelani WoodsTE · NYJ	1.0	2.1	+1.1
317	Barion BrownWR · NO	0.9	-0.5	−1.4
318	Greg DortchWR · BUF	0.9	0.0	−0.9
319	Zavion ThomasWR · CHI	0.9	0.0	−0.9
320	Hayden RucciTE · LAC	0.9	0.0	−0.9
321	Josh CuevasTE · BAL	0.8	0.0	−0.8
322	Jeshaun JonesWR · MIN	0.8	0.0	−0.8
323	Brady RussellRB · SEA	0.8	0.0	−0.8
324	Andrew OgletreeTE · IND	0.8	0.0	−0.8
325	Chris ManhertzTE · NYG	0.7	0.0	−0.7
326	Nick MuseTE · ATL	0.7	0.0	−0.7
327	Ian ThomasTE · LV	0.7	11.2	+10.5
328	Jalen BrooksWR · ARI	0.7	0.0	−0.7
329	Anthony Tyus IIIRB · CAR	0.7	0.0	−0.7
330	Isaiah DavisRB · NYJ	0.7	0.0	−0.7
331	Charlie JonesWR · NYG	0.7	0.0	−0.7
332	E.J. JenkinsTE · ATL	0.6	0.0	−0.6
333	Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · IND	0.6	0.0	−0.6
334	Adam PrenticeRB · DEN	0.6	0.0	−0.6
335	Max BredesonRB · MIN	0.6	0.0	−0.6
336	Cyrus AllenWR · KC	0.6	0.0	−0.6
337	Reggie GilliamRB · NE	0.6	0.0	−0.6
338	Dylan LaubeRB · LV	0.6	0.0	−0.6
339	Patrick RicardRB · NYG	0.5	1.1	+0.6
340	Treyton WelchTE · NO	0.5	0.0	−0.5
341	Derius DavisWR · LAC	0.5	-0.4	−0.9
342	Elijah SarrattWR · BAL	0.4	2.3	+1.9
343	Josh WhyleTE · GB	0.4	0.0	−0.4
344	Velus Jones Jr.RB · SEA	0.4	0.0	−0.4
345	Kameron JohnsonWR · TB	0.3	1.3	+1.0
346	Brayden WillisTE · SF	0.3	0.0	−0.3
347	Athan KaliakmanisQB · WAS	0.3	11.0	+10.7
348	Tyson BagentQB · CHI	0.3	8.8	+8.5
349	Roschon JohnsonRB · CHI	0.3	3.3	+3.0
350	Ben VanSumerenRB · KC	0.3	0.0	−0.3
351	Cameron LatuTE · NE	0.3	0.0	−0.3
352	Bauer SharpTE · TB	0.3	0.0	−0.3
353	Keleki LatuTE · BUF	0.3	0.0	−0.3
354	Patrick HerbertTE · LAC	0.3	0.0	−0.3
355	Tanner KoziolTE · JAX	0.3	0.0	−0.3
356	Gavin BartholomewTE · MIN	0.3	1.4	+1.1
357	Max KlareTE · LA	0.3	0.0	−0.3
358	Tyler HuntleyQB · BAL	0.2	4.1	+3.9
359	Tom KennedyWR · DET	0.2	0.0	−0.2
360	David Martin-RobinsonTE · TEN	0.2	0.0	−0.2

How to read this

A typical fantasy-relevant player scores about 12–16 PPR points, and the same player can score 6 one week and 25 the next. A miss of 5–7 points is normal for any single-game projection, ours or anyone's.
Most of the miss is touchdowns and long plays. Even if we had known every player's exact targets and carries in advance, our past-season tests still miss by about 4.7–5.6 points.
Over four past seasons our typical miss for this group was 5.9–6.5 points. One week is a small sample: the season record is what counts.
Where we add the most is usage (targets and carries) and the order of players: who should outscore whom. That is what start/sit decisions need.