Through Week 9
Week 10 fantasy trade targets: buy low, sell high
Who to trade for and who to trade away this week, with the reason for each.
▲ Trade for: buy low
Startable players whose work is ahead of their points, or whose points dipped while the role held.
DK Metcalf WR · PIT · Buy low — On usage alone DK Metcalf should be scoring about 14 points a game; so far he has 10. Our trade value for Metcalf reads 21 now, against 19 last week (out of 100). Trade for him now at a WR3 price, before the points catch up to about 14 points a game. Our projection8 targets · 4 receptions · 56 receiving yards · 0.3 touchdowns12 PPR points
Michael Wilson WR · ARI · Buy low — The change at quarterback to Minshew is what moves Michael Wilson. What he gets each week is worth about 17 points a game; what he has scored is 13. His trade value was 34 last week and is 33 now, out of 100. Make an offer at a WR2 price: the role is worth about 17 points a game. Our projection7 targets · 4 receptions · 49 receiving yards · 0.3 touchdowns11 PPR pointsLast week: scored 12.09.06.0, projected 11.510.78.2.
Derrick Henry RB · BAL · Buy low — Recent games: 8 points a game. Earlier games: 19. The snaps haven't moved. Derrick Henry's value was 44 out of 100 a week ago and is 44 today. Stop at an RB3 price: the work is worth about 14 points a game. Our projection17 carries · 69 rushing yards · 1 reception · 8 receiving yards · 0.7 touchdowns13 PPR pointsLast week: scored 5.65.65.6, projected 12.214.013.2.
Josh Allen QB · BUF · Buy low — Touchdowns account for about 43% of the recent points for Josh Allen. He has averaged 19 points over his last three games, down from 29 before, and the role has held. Trade value: 60 last week, 57 this week, out of 100. A price of a QB2 gets you a role worth about 25 points a game. Our projection30 pass attempts · 261 passing yards · 1.7 passing touchdowns · 0.7 interceptions · 31 rushing yards22 PPR pointsLast week: scored 12.912.912.9, projected 21.620.120.1.
Drake London WR · ATL · Buy low — Penix is the quarterback now, and that changes the picture for Drake London. Points are down to 11 a game from 15, but his snaps are not. A week ago his trade value was 40; today it is 37 (out of 100). Take him at a WR3 price; the work is already worth about 13 points a game. He's also a start because Penix is the quarterback. Our projection8 targets · 5 receptions · 65 receiving yards · 0.3 touchdowns13 PPR pointsLast week: scored 11.89.36.8, projected 14.211.49.1.
Chris Olave WR · NO · Buy low — Chris Olave is at 14 points a game over his last three, down from 20, and the work hasn't gone away. On our trade value scale (0 to 100) he went from 58 to 61. Start the talks at a WR2 price for a role worth about 18 points a game. Our projection10 targets · 6 receptions · 77 receiving yards · 0.4 touchdowns16 PPR pointsLast week: scored 16.813.39.8, projected 15.913.210.1.
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL · Buy low — Bijan Robinson is seeing more of the ball, with no injury behind it. His touchdowns are overdue, judging by the chances he has had inside the 20. He moved from 74 to 73 in trade value (out of 100) in a week. He costs an RB2 price today and the work is worth about 18 points a game. Our projection18 carries · 81 rushing yards · 3 receptions · 31 receiving yards · 0.6 touchdowns18 PPR pointsLast week: scored 26.723.720.7, projected 21.220.117.9.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA · Buy low — Jaxon Smith-Njigba is tied to a quarterback change: Lock is the one throwing now. Take the touchdowns away and about 30% of the recent points for Smith-Njigba disappear. The trade value for Smith-Njigba went from 83 to 81 out of 100. Pay a WR2 price, not more: the work points to about 19 points a game. Our projection9 targets · 7 receptions · 96 receiving yards · 0.6 touchdowns20 PPR pointsLast week: scored 12.18.65.1, projected 21.916.713.3.
Deeper names with the same signal are waiver adds, not trade targets: Jadarian Price · Elijah Mitchell (see waiver wire).
▼ Trade away: sell high
Points running ahead of the work behind them, often thanks to touchdowns.
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF · Sell high — Deebo Samuel Sr.: Touches and targets worth about 8 points a game have brought him 12 a game. Cash in at a WR3 price before the points settle near 8 a game. Samuel missed Weeks 6, 7 and 9, and his status for this week is still open: check before kickoff. Our projection4 targets · 3 receptions · 38 receiving yards · 0.3 touchdowns8 PPR points
Mike Evans WR · SF · Sell high — Mike Evans' touches each week are worth about 11 points a game, less than the 15 he has scored. Last week he rated 17 out of 100 in trade value; now he rates 24. Ask for a WR2 price now: the role behind the points is worth about 11 points a game. Evans missed Weeks 7 and 9, and his status for this week is still open: check before kickoff. Our projection6 targets · 5 receptions · 67 receiving yards · 0.4 touchdowns14 PPR points
Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX · Sell high — The points for Bhayshul Tuten look better than the usage. His scoring is 16 points a game, and his usage is worth about 12 points a game. Tuten was a 7 in trade value last week and is a 20 now, out of 100. Sell at an RB2 price while the box scores still look good. Tuten got about 35% of his recent points from touchdowns. He's also a boom pick: that's only about Week 10, and this one is about the rest of the season. Our projection12 carries · 63 rushing yards · 2 receptions · 19 receiving yards · 0.7 touchdowns14 PPR pointsLast week: scored 8.98.98.9, projected 14.86.05.4.
Jameson Williams WR · DET · Sell high — A big part of the points for Jameson Williams came from touchdowns. 13 points a game is more than this work usually brings, about 10 points a game. His value on the 0 to 100 scale: 30 a week ago, 25 now. Trade him for a WR2 price; the role says about 10 points a game. He's also a start: that's only about Week 10, and this one is about the rest of the season. Our projection6 targets · 4 receptions · 69 receiving yards · 0.4 touchdowns14 PPR pointsLast week: scored 5.04.54.0, projected 14.810.18.3.
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET · Sell high — Touchdowns are doing most of the work for Jahmyr Gibbs. On usage alone he would be at about 22 points a game, not 26. Value check: 100 last week, 100 now, on a scale of 100. Get an RB1 price for him; the work only supports about 22 points a game. Our projection20 carries · 107 rushing yards · 3 receptions · 28 receiving yards · 1.1 touchdowns24 PPR pointsLast week: scored 13.413.413.4, projected 23.518.817.3.
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF · Sell high — Christian McCaffrey has scored 21 points a game while the workload says about 16 points a game. Close to 39% of the points McCaffrey has scored lately were touchdowns. He moved from 87 to 88 in trade value (out of 100) in a week. A trade at an RB1 price is a good exit from a role worth about 16 points a game. He's also a star with a big ceiling: that's only about Week 10, and this one is about the rest of the season. Our projection15 carries · 75 rushing yards · 5 receptions · 41 receiving yards · 1.0 touchdown22 PPR pointsLast week: scored 22.721.720.7, projected 21.615.413.0.
Kenneth Walker III RB · KC · Sell high — Kenneth Walker III gets his points from the end zone more than from volume. Our trade value for Walker reads 66 now, against 59 last week (out of 100). Move him for an RB1 price: the role is worth about 19 points a game. Touchdowns supplied about 36% of the recent production from Walker. Our projection15 carries · 80 rushing yards · 3 receptions · 22 receiving yards · 0.7 touchdowns17 PPR pointsLast week: scored 36.334.332.3, projected 17.613.412.3.
Tee Higgins WR · CIN · Sell high — Be careful with Tee Higgins: the scoring is ahead of the workload. Higgins was a 53 in trade value last week and is a 54 now, out of 100. Sell him at a WR1 price; the role is worth about 14 points a game. The recent points for Higgins lean on touchdowns, about 26% of them. Our projection7 targets · 6 receptions · 76 receiving yards · 0.6 touchdowns17 PPR pointsLast week: scored 20.217.715.2, projected 18.212.39.8.
Hold, don't sell: Omar Cooper Jr. (points ahead of the work, but the workload is growing, so the role backs up more of it).
Every trade target
"Work is worth" is the points his targets and carries are usually worth at league-average rates; "Difference" is his actual points a game minus that.
| # | Player | Call | PPR / gamePPR / g | Work is worthExp. pts | DifferenceDiff | TDs (expected)TD (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DK MetcalfWR · PIT | Buy | 9.7 | 13.9 | −4.1 | 1 (2.3) |
| 2 | Michael WilsonWR · ARI | Buy | 13.4 | 17.1 | −3.7 | 2 (6.3) |
| 3 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | Buy | 15.8 | 14.2 | +1.6 | 9 |
| 4 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | Buy | 25.1 | 25.1 | ±0.0 | 21 |
| 5 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | Buy | 13.5 | 13.0 | +0.5 | 1 |
| 6 | Chris OlaveWR · NO | Buy | 17.7 | 17.9 | −0.2 | 2 |
| 7 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | Buy | 20.0 | 18.2 | +1.8 | 6 |
| 8 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | Buy | 25.8 | 19.2 | +6.6 | 9 |
| 9 | Rashee RiceWR · KC | Buy | 11.0 | 9.2 | +1.8 | 2 |
| 10 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SF | Sell | 12.1 | 8.2 | +3.9 | 3 (1.6) |
| 11 | Mike EvansWR · SF | Sell | 14.8 | 11.2 | +3.6 | 3 (2.1) |
| 12 | Bhayshul TutenRB · JAX | Sell | 15.9 | 12.3 | +3.6 | 7 (4.2) |
| 13 | Jameson WilliamsWR · DET | Sell | 13.2 | 10.0 | +3.2 | 5 (2.7) |
| 14 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | Sell | 26.1 | 22.0 | +4.1 | 11 |
| 15 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | Sell | 20.8 | 16.3 | +4.5 | 10 |
| 16 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | Sell | 24.6 | 18.9 | +5.6 | 11 |
| 17 | Tee HigginsWR · CIN | Sell | 20.0 | 14.4 | +5.5 | 6 |
| 18 | Christian WatsonWR · GB | Sell | 19.7 | 14.2 | +5.5 | 7 |
| 19 | Nico CollinsWR · HOU | Sell | 15.3 | 11.4 | +3.8 | 4 |
| # | Player | Call | PPR / gamePPR / g | Work is worthExp. pts | DifferenceDiff | TDs (expected)TD (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DK MetcalfWR · PIT | Buy | 9.7 | 13.9 | −4.1 | 1 (2.3) |
| 2 | Michael WilsonWR · ARI | Buy | 13.4 | 17.1 | −3.7 | 2 (6.3) |
| 3 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | Buy | 15.8 | 14.2 | +1.6 | 9 |
| 4 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | Buy | 25.1 | 25.1 | ±0.0 | 21 |
| 5 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | Buy | 13.5 | 13.0 | +0.5 | 1 |
| 6 | Chris OlaveWR · NO | Buy | 17.7 | 17.9 | −0.2 | 2 |
| 7 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | Buy | 20.0 | 18.2 | +1.8 | 6 |
| 8 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | Buy | 25.8 | 19.2 | +6.6 | 9 |
| 9 | Rashee RiceWR · KC | Buy | 11.0 | 9.2 | +1.8 | 2 |
| # | Player | Call | PPR / gamePPR / g | Work is worthExp. pts | DifferenceDiff | TDs (expected)TD (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SF | Sell | 12.1 | 8.2 | +3.9 | 3 (1.6) |
| 2 | Mike EvansWR · SF | Sell | 14.8 | 11.2 | +3.6 | 3 (2.1) |
| 3 | Bhayshul TutenRB · JAX | Sell | 15.9 | 12.3 | +3.6 | 7 (4.2) |
| 4 | Jameson WilliamsWR · DET | Sell | 13.2 | 10.0 | +3.2 | 5 (2.7) |
| 5 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | Sell | 26.1 | 22.0 | +4.1 | 11 |
| 6 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | Sell | 20.8 | 16.3 | +4.5 | 10 |
| 7 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | Sell | 24.6 | 18.9 | +5.6 | 11 |
| 8 | Tee HigginsWR · CIN | Sell | 20.0 | 14.4 | +5.5 | 6 |
| 9 | Christian WatsonWR · GB | Sell | 19.7 | 14.2 | +5.5 | 7 |
| 10 | Nico CollinsWR · HOU | Sell | 15.3 | 11.4 | +3.8 | 4 |
How to use this page
Trade targets are players whose points are running ahead of or behind the work they get. Each Week 10 pick says whether to buy low or sell high, what decides it, and the price to pay or ask for. Use it Tuesday to Thursday, when most trades happen.
Scored points use the official stats, including 2-point conversions and return touchdowns. Projections leave those two out: they are rare and not modeled.