Boom or bust · Week 10
Who has the ceiling, who has the risk
A boom is a game 35% or more above our projection; a bust is half of it or less. A typical player here booms about 1 week in 4; these picks are above that. Chances, not promises: a bust-risk star is usually still in your lineup. Published on Monday, before the week's injury reports; the page is rechecked after each report.
Boom picks: the best chance of a big game
DeMario Douglas WR · NE Boom — The numbers point to a big game for DeMario Douglas. This looks like a high-scoring game: New England is expected to score about 24 points. Touchdowns account for about 30% of the recent points for Douglas. The odds: a strong chance that Douglas reaches 13 fantasy points (about 45%). Last week: scored 15.212.710.2, projected 11.17.85.9.
Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX Boom — Bhayshul Tuten stands out for upside this week. Expect a high-scoring game, with about 28 points for Jacksonville. Tuten got about 35% of his recent points from touchdowns. A strong chance that this is a 19-plus point week for Tuten (about 40%). He's also a sell-high candidate because his points lean on touchdowns; that's a rest-of-season call, and this one is only about Week 10. Last week: scored 8.98.98.9, projected 14.86.05.4.
Tyler Shough QB · NO Boom — A big game is in the cards for Tyler Shough more often than for most players. The game should be high-scoring: New Orleans is expected to score about 24. Around 39% of the points Shough has put up lately were touchdowns. We see a strong chance that Shough clears 20 fantasy points (about 40%). Last week: scored 19.719.719.7, projected 14.214.114.1.
Parker Washington WR · JAX Boom — Parker Washington has a bigger ceiling than most players at his position this week. It should be a high-scoring game, with Jacksonville expected to score about 28. About 30% of the scoring from Washington lately has been touchdowns, which makes the floor lower. A strong chance that Washington tops 18 fantasy points (about 40%). Last week: scored 14.113.112.1, projected 13.210.98.7.
Dak Prescott QB · DAL Boom — Dak Prescott is one of this week's likeliest players to have a big game. Points should come in this one, with Dallas expected to score about 26. Take the touchdowns away and about 44% of the recent points for Prescott disappear. Our read on the ceiling: a strong chance that Prescott goes over 23 fantasy points (about 35%). Last week: scored 19.519.519.5, projected 16.915.715.7.
Stars with the biggest ceilings this week: Christian McCaffrey (a strong chance, about 40%, that he clears 30 points) He's also a sell-high candidate: that's a rest-of-season call, and this one is only about Week 10. and George Kittle (a strong chance, about 35%, that he clears 21 points).
Bust risks: starters most likely to disappoint
Kyle Pitts TE · ATL Bust — The risk with Kyle Pitts is higher than his rank implies. The points come in bursts: 13, 3 and 5 in his last three. About 40% of the recent scoring from Pitts came on touchdowns. The odds: a real chance that Pitts ends up at 5 fantasy points or less (about 30%). Last week: scored 5.33.82.3, projected 11.58.26.2.
Justin Jefferson WR · MIN Bust — There is more downside with Justin Jefferson than his rank suggests. A real chance that Jefferson comes in at 6 fantasy points or fewer this week (about 25%). For context, his last three were 8, 14 and 9 points. Last week: scored 8.87.35.8, projected 13.511.99.2.
Tucker Kraft TE · GB Bust — Points have been hard to come by against Minnesota, and Tucker Kraft has to find them. A real chance that Kraft finishes with 5 or fewer fantasy points (about 25%). His three most recent games: 15, 17 and 2 points. He's also a start: the bust call is about falling short of his number, not about benching him. Last week: scored 1.91.40.9, projected 11.18.96.9.
Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF Bust — Dalton Kincaid carries more risk of a dud than most starters this week. We see an outside chance that Kincaid stays at 6 fantasy points or fewer (about 25%). Scores lately: 11, 19 and 6 points. Last week: scored 5.84.32.8, projected 10.89.27.2.
Josh Jacobs RB · GB Bust — Josh Jacobs plays Minnesota this week, a defense that has been hard to score on at his position. On the downside, an outside chance that Jacobs scores 6 or fewer fantasy points (about 25%). He comes in off games of 20, 23 and 0 points. Last week: scored 0.50.50.5, projected 17.315.213.4.