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Dalton Kincaid Week 10 fantasy outlook

‹ Buffalo Bills

Week 10 fantasy outlook

TEBuffalo Bills#86

No injury report yet

Next game

Week 10 @ NYJ · Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM

12.410.17.8pts · range 6.3–17.9 ptspts · range 5.1–14.6 ptspts · range 3.9–11.3 pts
START

TE5TE5TE5 this weekTE10 on the season

Last game

Week 9 @ MIN, W 23–6

5.8 pts4.3 pts2.8 pts · 3 catches on 3 targets, 28 yds

CompareGames

Updated Tuesday, Nov 10, 6:27 AM ET

Week 10 outlook

@ NYJ ·

No injury report yet

Start

Dalton Kincaid is a high-end TE1 this week. Our projection for the game: 5 targets, 5 receptions and 58 receiving yards. The floor is low and the ceiling is high: 11, 19 and 6 points. He should be in your lineup this week.

Week 10 in numbers

Fantasy points

Projected

12.410.17.8

pts · TE5TE5TE5 this week

range 6.35.13.9–17.914.611.3 pts

Season average

10.68.76.9

pts per game · 8 games

Projected stats

Receptions

4.6

Receiving yards

57.8

Receiving TDs

0.3

Matchup · defense

14.6pts allowed to TEsMiddle · 12th most

Trends to know

  • Points ahead of the work: about 11 PPR points a game against about 9 that his targets and carries are usually worth.

Ranks compare players at the position this week. Projections assume the player is active.

Fantasy points

84.969.954.9

TE10 · 8 games

Per game

10.68.76.9

TE10TE10TE9

Touchdowns

2

TE23 of 135

Targets

38

TE18 of 135

Receptions

30

TE17 of 135

Receiving yards

429

TE7 of 135

2026 regular season through Week 9. Ranks among TEs who have played; per-game ranks need 2+ games.

Week 10 fantasy points range

Big game: 17 or more pts25% a real chance, about 1 in 4
Dud: 6 or fewer pts25% a real chance, about 1 in 4

There is a 50% chance he scores between 6 and 18 points.

Season so far

Overall 2026 regular season

Game by game

7.8'24 avg10.5'25 avg18W122.5W23.8W31.7W43.7W510.8W618.6W85.8W912.4W10TE1TE2
6.1'24 avg8.9'25 avg15.5W119W22.8W31.2W43.2W57.3W616.6W84.3W910.1W10TE1TE2
4.4'24 avg7.3'25 avg13W115.5W21.8W30.7W42.7W53.8W614.6W82.8W97.8W10TE1TE2
5.8'24 avg4.1'25 avg6W18W23W32W42W58W66W83W95.5W10TE1TE2
21%W129%W212%W37%W411%W527%W618%W810%W9TE1TE2
3.4'24 avg3.2'25 avg5W17W22W31W41W57W64W83W94.6W10TE1TE2
34.5'24 avg47.6'25 avg130W195W238W37W47W538W686W828W957.8W10TE1TE2
0.2'24 avg0.4'25 avg0W11W20W30W40W50W61W80W9TE1TE2
72%W166%W267%W359%W470%W572%W657%W8—W9TE1TE2

Last seasons Game TE1/TE2 Season avg Next game

TE1/TE2 lines: the per-game level of the 12th, 24th TE this season (12-team league). Last seasons = that season's per-game average.

Season summary

Dalton Kincaid has 38 targets (TE18) and 429 receiving yards in 8 games, averaging 11 PPR points per game (TE10). For Week 10 at the New York Jets, Kincaid projects for 12 PPR points (TE5), and about half the time between 6.3 and 17.9.

2026 so farKincaidAvg starter TEAvg TEDifferenceDiff
PPR points / game10.613.2−20%
Targets / game4.86.9−31%
Target share17%21%−20%
Receiving yards / game5455−2%
Yards / target11.38.0+40%
Catch rate79%73%+9%
Touchdowns / game0.250.47−47%
Snap share66%80%−17%

Average starter = the top 12 TEs by PPR points per game (2+ games). Difference: green = 10%+ better, red = 10%+ worse. Updated with every data refresh.

Schedule strength

Next 3 games

Easy · 3rd

16.4 PPR allowed to TEs / game · NYJ, MIA, KC

Rest of season

Easy · 9th

14.7 PPR allowed to TEs / game · 9 games

Fantasy playoffs

Easy · 7th

16.1 PPR allowed to TEs / game · Weeks 15–17

WeekOpponentPPR allowed to TEs / gameDefense rank
W10@ NYJ14.6Middle · 12th
W11vs MIA17.7Easy · 4th
W12vs KC16.9Easy · 6th
W13@ NE10.8Tough · 26th
W14@ GB9.7Tough · 31st
W15vs CHI11.4Tough · 23rd
W16@ DEN19.2Easy · 2nd
W17@ MIA17.7Easy · 4th
W18vs NYJ14.6Middle · 12th

Rank of 32 by PPR points allowed to TEs this season.

Role profile

Targets / game4.8 · 18th of 131
Target share17% · 14th of 131
Snap share66% · 21st of 131
Red-zone targets6.0 · 15th of 131
Yards / target11.3 · 2nd of 54
PPR points / game10.6 · 10th of 131

Rank among TEs with 2+ games this season (1st = best at the position; for interceptions and sacks, 1st = fewest); the bar shows where that sits in the field. Efficiency needs at least 10 targets or carries (quarterbacks: 30 pass attempts).

Role trend

0%50%100%57%10%W1W2W3W4W5W6W8W9

Snap share Target share

Game log · 2026

Swipe sideways for more columns

WkOppResultPtsProjTgtRecYdsTDTgt %Snap%Total ydsTotal TD
W1@ HOUW 36–3118.015.513.0———65130021%72%1300
W2vs DETW 41–3122.519.015.5———8795129%66%951
W3vs LACW 24–163.82.81.8———3238012%67%380
W4vs NEL 26–291.71.20.711.69.57.421707%59%70
W5@ LAW 37–343.73.22.710.38.56.6217011%70%70
W6@ LVW 33–3010.87.33.810.48.56.68738027%72%380
W8vs BALW 36–1018.616.614.68.06.44.96486118%57%861
W9@ MINW 23–65.84.32.810.89.27.23328010%—280

Season by season

Swipe sideways for more columns

SeasonTeamGPtsPts / gTgtRecYdsTDTotal ydsTotal TD
2023BUF16150.3113.877.3TE119.47.14.8TE14917367326732
2024BUF13100.878.856.8TE307.86.14.4TE19754444824482
2025BUF12126.1106.687.1TE2010.58.97.3TE14493957155715
2026BUF884.969.954.9TE1010.68.76.9TE10383042924292

Regular season. The tag under each number is his rank at the position that season (PPR; per game: 4+ games). Green = top 12, blue = 13–24.

Related players

Teammates who share the ball

Most targets and carries on the team this season.

Similar TE projection this week

The TEs ranked just above and below in projected points.

How these numbers are made
Player ID
00-0038933
Projection made
Data snapshot
Season stats
nflverse play-by-play and player stats (CC-BY 4.0)
Fantasy scoring
Standard rules: PPR, half PPR (0.5 per catch), standard. Scored points use the official stats, including 2-point conversions and return touchdowns. Projections leave those two out: they are rare and not modeled.

Methodology

More TE rankings · Usage report