Boom or bust · Week 10
Who has the ceiling, who has the risk
A boom is a game 35% or more above our projection; a bust is half of it or less. A typical player here booms about 1 week in 4; these picks are above that. Chances, not promises: a bust-risk star is usually still in your lineup. Published on Monday, before the week's injury reports; the page is rechecked after each report.
Bust risks: starters most likely to disappoint
Kyle Pitts TE · ATL Bust — The risk with Kyle Pitts is higher than his rank implies. The points come in bursts: 13, 3 and 5 in his last three. About 40% of the recent scoring from Pitts came on touchdowns. The odds: a real chance that Pitts ends up at 5 fantasy points or less (about 30%). Last week: scored 5.33.82.3, projected 11.58.26.2.
Tucker Kraft TE · GB Bust — Points have been hard to come by against Minnesota, and Tucker Kraft has to find them. A real chance that Kraft finishes with 5 or fewer fantasy points (about 25%). His three most recent games: 15, 17 and 2 points. He's also a start: the bust call is about falling short of his number, not about benching him. Last week: scored 1.91.40.9, projected 11.18.96.9.
Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF Bust — Dalton Kincaid carries more risk of a dud than most starters this week. We see an outside chance that Kincaid stays at 6 fantasy points or fewer (about 25%). Scores lately: 11, 19 and 6 points. Last week: scored 5.84.32.8, projected 10.89.27.2.