Boom or bust · Week 10
Who has the ceiling, who has the risk
A boom is a game 35% or more above our projection; a bust is half of it or less. A typical player here booms about 1 week in 4; these picks are above that. Chances, not promises: a bust-risk star is usually still in your lineup. Published on Monday, before the week's injury reports; the page is rechecked after each report.
Boom picks: the best chance of a big game
DeMario Douglas WR · NE Boom — The numbers point to a big game for DeMario Douglas. This looks like a high-scoring game: New England is expected to score about 24 points. Touchdowns account for about 30% of the recent points for Douglas. The odds: a strong chance that Douglas reaches 13 fantasy points (about 45%). Last week: scored 15.212.710.2, projected 11.17.85.9.
Parker Washington WR · JAX Boom — Parker Washington has a bigger ceiling than most players at his position this week. It should be a high-scoring game, with Jacksonville expected to score about 28. About 30% of the scoring from Washington lately has been touchdowns, which makes the floor lower. A strong chance that Washington tops 18 fantasy points (about 40%). Last week: scored 14.113.112.1, projected 13.210.98.7.
Stars with the biggest ceilings this week: Christian McCaffrey (a strong chance, about 40%, that he clears 30 points) He's also a sell-high candidate: that's a rest-of-season call, and this one is only about Week 10. and George Kittle (a strong chance, about 35%, that he clears 21 points).
Bust risks: starters most likely to disappoint
Justin Jefferson WR · MIN Bust — There is more downside with Justin Jefferson than his rank suggests. A real chance that Jefferson comes in at 6 fantasy points or fewer this week (about 25%). For context, his last three were 8, 14 and 9 points. Last week: scored 8.87.35.8, projected 13.511.99.2.